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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
1-0 · #230 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium · 83° · Sunny
Marshall Thundering Herd
0-1 · #133 Elo
Spread MRSH -17.5Total 57.5Moneyline MTSU +650 · MRSH -1000
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
MRSH -1000
77%
model margin MRSH by 12.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MTSU +17.5
52%
5.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 57.5
51%
model total 56.1
The read
On rating alone Marshall Thundering Herd are 9.4 points better (#133 vs #230 of 240), and MRSH add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: MRSH passing ranks #28, MTSU defends it at #125; the other way MTSU #87 into MRSH's #107. The model lands on MRSH by 12.4 against a market MRSH by 17.5, so the spread lean is MTSU by 5.1 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%.
Who has the edge
Model: MRSH by 12.4 · market MRSH by 17.5
Rating
Clear edge
MRSH
MRSH rated 9.4 points better on Elo (#133 vs #230).
Home & rest
Clear edge
MRSH
MRSH gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
MRSH
MRSH passing ranks #28, MTSU defends it at #125; the other way MTSU #87 into MRSH's #107.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
MTSU rushing ranks #87, MRSH defends it at #30; the other way MRSH #99 into MTSU's #36.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
MRSH
MTSU third-down conversion ranks #93, MRSH defends it at #74; the other way MRSH #106 into MTSU's #65.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
MTSU
MRSH −45.0 per game over the last five, MTSU +24.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MRSH
Consensus has MRSH by 17.5; the model says MRSH by 12.4.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: MRSH by 12.4 · market MRSH by 17.5
Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMarshall Thundering Herd
1262 Elo · #230
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MRSH +9.4 pts
1430 Elo · #133
road
Home field
MRSH +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−1.6 pts vs MRSH D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MRSH +2.4 pts
+0.7 pts vs MTSU D
W · +24.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MTSU +34.5 pts
L · −45.0
−16.0
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
MRSH +11.5 pts
−4.5
MTSU +17.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
MRSH +17.5 pts
MRSH -17.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MRSH pass success rate (#16) against a MTSU defense ranked #130 at stopping it
- ▸MTSU defense (#9 rush explosiveness allowed) against a MRSH offense ranked #119
- ▸MRSH passing ppa / play (#28) against a MTSU defense ranked #125 at stopping it
- ▸MRSH defense (#25 stuff rate forced) against a MTSU offense ranked #116
- ▸MRSH defense (#16 power success allowed) against a MTSU offense ranked #106
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders offense vs Marshall Thundering Herd defense
ranks of 135| MTSU off | MRSH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 62% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 68 | 67 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:46 | 29:55 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.21#87 | +0.33#107 | · |
| Pass success rate | 42%#62 | 42%#73 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.43#115 | 1.83#132 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.4#113 | 8.5#127 | · |
| Completion % | 60%#91 | 58%#28 | MRSH |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.0%#49 | 1.6%#112 | MTSU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.08#87 | +0.04#30 | MRSH |
| Rush success rate | 45%#56 | 37%#11 | MRSH |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.88#107 | 0.99#85 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.92#70 | 2.60#16 | MRSH |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 22%#116 | 22%#25 | MRSH |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 65%#106 | 63%#16 | MRSH |
| Yards / rush | 4.1#92 | 3.9#49 | MRSH |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.09#83 | +0.13#91 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.30#68 | +0.21#32 | MRSH |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#93 | 40%#74 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.20#116 | 3.62#64 | MRSH |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 18.0%#114 | 15.7%#66 | MRSH |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#31 | 1.75#19 | · |
Marshall Thundering Herd offense vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders defense
ranks of 135| MRSH off | MTSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 42% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 72% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 65 | 65 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:05 | 31:14 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.38#28 | +0.41#125 | MRSH |
| Pass success rate | 48%#16 | 48%#130 | MRSH |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.52#84 | 1.61#99 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.4#57 | 8.2#122 | MRSH |
| Completion % | 65%#37 | 64%#106 | MRSH |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.9%#119 | 1.9%#100 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.05#99 | +0.04#36 | MTSU |
| Rush success rate | 43%#67 | 41%#59 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.85#119 | 0.83#9 | MTSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.05#49 | 2.62#19 | MTSU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 17%#45 | 23%#16 | MTSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 63%#119 | 66%#29 | MTSU |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#34 | 4.1#55 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.14#53 | +0.17#110 | MRSH |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.31#63 | +0.33#90 | MRSH |
| Third-down conversion | 35%#106 | 39%#65 | MTSU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.89#51 | 4.03#105 | MRSH |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.0%#29 | 15.7%#67 | MRSH |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.25#68 | 1.17#82 | · |
Season
| MTSU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 38.0 | Points for / game | 0.0 |
| 14.0 | Points against / game | 45.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| MTSU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1262 | Elo | 1430 |
| #230 of 240 | Rank | #133 of 240 |
| −2.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −3.1 |
| −3.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −1.2 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1768 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| MTSU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| −26.5 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −8.2 |
| 0.160 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.189 |
| 0.215 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.157 |
| 43% / 45% | Success rate (off / def) | 45% / 39% |
| 1.22 / 1.27 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.16 / 1.42 |
| 572 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 595 |
| 33% | Returning production | 99% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | MRSH 42 at MTSU 28 | MRSH · MRSH covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MRSH +9.4 pts
- Home field
- MRSH +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MRSH by 12.4
- Model total
- 56.1 vs 57.5
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- MRSH -17.5
- Total
- 57.5
- Moneyline
- MTSU +650 · MRSH -1000
- Best price
- MTSU +650 draftkings · MRSH -1000 draftkings
| Book | MRSH spread | Total | MTSU ML | MRSH ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -17.5 (-110) | 57.5 (-115/-105) | +650 | -1000 |
Spreadopened MRSH -17.5 · now MRSH -17.5
Totalopened 57.5 · now 57.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.