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Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
0-2 last yr · #165 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Marshall Thundering Herd
0-1 · #133 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Marshall Thundering Herd are 1.8 points better (#133 vs #165 of 240), and MRSH add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
MRSH
MRSH rated 1.8 points better on Elo (#133 vs #165).
Home & rest
Even
—
MRSH gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
GWEB
MRSH −45.0 per game over the last five, GWEB −32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Gardner-Webb Runnin' BulldogsMarshall Thundering Herd
1398 Elo · #165
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MRSH +1.8 pts
1430 Elo · #133
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−0.1 pts vs MRSH D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MRSH +2.9 pts
+2.7 pts vs GWEB D
L L · −32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
GWEB +6.5 pts
L · −45.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| GWEB | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 0-1 |
| 23.5 | Points for / game | 0.0 |
| 55.5 | Points against / game | 45.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-2 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| GWEB | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1398 | Elo | 1430 |
| #165 of 240 | Rank | #133 of 240 |
| −1.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −3.1 |
| −5.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −1.2 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1768 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MRSH +1.8 pts
- Home field
- MRSH +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.