Probetrics — Sports Analytics

North Texas Mean Green

2026: 0-1 · Elo 1682 · #29 of 240 · 16.0 for, 52.0 against · ATS 1-0

Next: vs UNLV · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

16821500 = average

Model on this team

No locked picks graded yet this season.

SP+ (2026)
-11.6
SP+ (2025)
+13.8
Talent composite
602
Returning production
3%

How they play

Pass rate
51%
Standard-down share
74%
Plays / game
63
Possession / game
28:23

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Line yards / rush
#1 · 3.58
Standard-down PPA
#1 · +0.33
Rush success rate
#2 · 53%
Rushing PPA / play
#3 · +0.33
Interception rate
#86 · 3.1%
Turnovers / game
#84 · 1.36
Pass explosiveness
#63 · 1.56
Power success
#59 · 73%

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Takeaways / game
#6 · 2.00
Yards / pass attempt
#11 · 6.0
Completion %
#17 · 56%
Pass success rate
#26 · 37%
Stuff rate forced
#124 · 14%
Rush success rate
#124 · 48%
Yards / rush
#120 · 5.0
Line yards / rush
#117 · 3.19
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1at#6 Indiana HoosiersL 16–52+39.5IU 87%
Sep 12W2vsUNLV Rebels+6.5UNT 73%
Sep 19W3atTexas State Bobcats
Sep 26W4vsHouston Christian Huskies
Oct 1W5atTulsa Golden Hurricane
Oct 10W6vsCharlotte 49ers
Oct 24W8atNavy Midshipmen
Oct 29W9vsFlorida Atlantic Owls
Nov 7W10vsRice Owls
Nov 14W11atUTSA Roadrunners
Nov 21W12atTulane Green Wave
Nov 28W13vsUAB Blazers

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.