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UNLV Rebels
1-1 · #68 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:45 PM ET
DATCU Stadium · 94° · 22 mph wind · Mostly sunny
North Texas Mean Green
0-1 · #29 Elo
Spread UNLV -6.5Total 61.5Moneyline UNLV -227 · UNT +1872 books · best UNLV -225 draftkings · UNT +188 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UNT +187
73%
model margin UNT by 10.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
UNT +6.5
56%
16.9 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 61.5
52%
model total 67.2
The read
On rating alone North Texas Mean Green are 8.5 points better (#29 vs #68 of 240), and UNT add 3.1 for home field; UNLV carry a rest edge worth 1.1. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: UNLV third-down conversion ranks #28, UNT defends it at #105; the other way UNT #24 into UNLV's #17. The model lands on UNT by 10.4 against a market UNLV by 6.5, so the spread lean is UNT by 16.9 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 67.2 against 61.5, with weather taking 3.4 off.
Who has the edge
Model: UNT by 10.4 · market UNLV by 6.5
Rating
Clear edge
UNT
UNT rated 8.5 points better on Elo (#29 vs #68).
Home & rest
Clear edge
UNT
UNT gets 3.1 points for home field and UNLV 1.1 for rest.
Passing game
Slight edge
UNT
UNT passing ranks #12, UNLV defends it at #71; the other way UNLV #33 into UNT's #56.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
UNT rushing ranks #3, UNLV defends it at #129; the other way UNLV #8 into UNT's #110.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
UNLV
UNLV third-down conversion ranks #28, UNT defends it at #105; the other way UNT #24 into UNLV's #17.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UNLV
UNT −36.0 per game over the last five, UNLV +4.5.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UNLV
Consensus has UNLV by 6.5; the model says UNT by 10.4.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: UNT by 10.4 · market UNLV by 6.5
UNLV RebelsNorth Texas Mean Green
1529 Elo · #68
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
UNT +8.5 pts
1682 Elo · #29
road
Home field
UNT +3.1 pts
home
14d
Rest
UNLV +1.1 pts
7d
+4.5 pts vs UNT D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
UNT +4.5 pts
+9.1 pts vs UNLV D
W L · +4.5
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UNLV +20.3 pts
L · −36.0
+4.3
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
UNT +9.5 pts
+13.8
UNLV -6.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
UNLV +6.5 pts
UNT +6.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸UNT rushing ppa / play (#3) against a UNLV defense ranked #129 at stopping it
- ▸UNT standard-down ppa (#1) against a UNLV defense ranked #126 at stopping it
- ▸UNLV yards / rush (#10) against a UNT defense ranked #120 at stopping it
- ▸UNT line yards / rush (#1) against a UNLV defense ranked #111 at stopping it
- ▸UNT rush explosiveness (#17) against a UNLV defense ranked #126 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
UNLV Rebels offense vs North Texas Mean Green defense
ranks of 135| UNLV off | UNT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 49% | 38% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 64 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:43 | 31:37 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.37#33 | +0.21#56 | · |
| Pass success rate | 46%#26 | 37%#26 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.58#50 | 1.67#112 | UNLV |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#22 | 6.0#11 | · |
| Completion % | 66%#29 | 56%#17 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.3%#96 | 2.3%#74 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.26#8 | +0.18#110 | UNLV |
| Rush success rate | 48%#19 | 48%#124 | UNLV |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.09#22 | 1.01#91 | UNLV |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.19#21 | 3.19#117 | UNLV |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#63 | 14%#124 | UNLV |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 71%#77 | 77%#110 | UNLV |
| Yards / rush | 5.6#10 | 5.0#120 | UNLV |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.22#17 | +0.14#96 | UNLV |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.47#15 | +0.27#62 | UNLV |
| Third-down conversion | 45%#28 | 42%#105 | UNLV |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.45#18 | 4.03#104 | UNLV |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.0%#86 | 13.7%#108 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.21#62 | 2.00#6 | UNT |
North Texas Mean Green offense vs UNLV Rebels defense
ranks of 135| UNT off | UNLV def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 74% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:23 | 29:17 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.43#12 | +0.25#71 | UNT |
| Pass success rate | 51%#8 | 43%#95 | UNT |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.56#63 | 1.56#68 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.3#5 | 7.7#104 | UNT |
| Completion % | 68%#13 | 60%#43 | UNT |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.1%#86 | 2.0%#93 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.33#3 | +0.23#129 | UNT |
| Rush success rate | 53%#2 | 45%#102 | UNT |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.10#17 | 1.11#126 | UNT |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.58#1 | 3.15#111 | UNT |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 13%#7 | 17%#101 | UNT |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 73%#59 | 62%#14 | UNLV |
| Yards / rush | 5.3#19 | 5.2#127 | UNT |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.33#1 | +0.22#126 | UNT |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.44#22 | +0.20#27 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 46%#24 | 33%#17 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.98#4 | 3.78#79 | UNT |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.5%#9 | 14.9%#89 | UNT |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.36#84 | 1.71#24 | UNLV |
Season
| UNLV | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 21.0 | Points for / game | 16.0 |
| 16.5 | Points against / game | 52.0 |
| 0-1 / 1-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| UNLV | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1529 | Elo | 1682 |
| #68 of 240 | Rank | #29 of 240 |
| +2.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +12.0 |
| +3.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −1.8 |
| 1593 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1993 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| UNLV | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.6 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −11.6 |
| 0.298 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.357 |
| 0.214 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.180 |
| 47% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 51% / 44% |
| 1.34 / 1.33 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.33 / 1.22 |
| 696 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 602 |
| 15% | Returning production | 3% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UNT +8.5 pts
- Home field
- UNT +3.1 pts
- Rest
- UNLV +1.1 pts
- Weather / roof
- -3.4 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UNT by 10.4
- Model total
- 67.2 vs 61.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- UNLV -6.5
- Total
- 61.5
- Moneyline
- UNLV -227 · UNT +187
- Best price
- UNLV -225 draftkings · UNT +188 fanduel
| Book | UNT spread | Total | UNLV ML | UNT ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | -225 | +185 |
| fanduel | — | — | -230 | +188 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.