← College Football slate
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
0-1 last yr · #107 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Kenan Stadium · 77° · Partly sunny
North Carolina Tar Heels
1-0 · #89 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline ETSU +1820 · UNC -45882 books · best ETSU +2400 polymarketus · UNC -3900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
UNC -4588
61%
model margin UNC by 5.0
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 50.0
The read
On rating alone North Carolina Tar Heels are 0.8 points better (#89 vs #107 of 240), and UNC add 3.1 for home field; UNC carry a rest edge worth 1.1.
Who has the edge
Model: UNC by 5.0
Rating
Even
—
UNC rated 0.8 points better on Elo (#89 vs #107).
Home & rest
Clear edge
UNC
UNC gets 3.1 points for home field and UNC 1.1 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UNC
UNC +5.0 per game over the last five, ETSU −55.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: UNC by 5.0
East Tennessee State BuccaneersNorth Carolina Tar Heels
1454 Elo · #107
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
UNC +0.8 pts
1469 Elo · #89
road
Home field
UNC +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
UNC +1.1 pts
14d
−9.2 pts vs UNC D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
UNC +11.4 pts
+2.2 pts vs ETSU D
L · −55.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UNC +30.0 pts
W · +5.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| ETSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 17.0 | Points for / game | 15.0 |
| 72.0 | Points against / game | 10.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| ETSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1454 | Elo | 1469 |
| #107 of 240 | Rank | #89 of 240 |
| −2.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −3.3 |
| −5.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +6.5 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1642 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UNC +0.8 pts
- Home field
- UNC +3.1 pts
- Rest
- UNC +1.1 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UNC by 5.0
- Model total
- 50.0 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- ETSU +1820 · UNC -4588
- Best price
- ETSU +2400 polymarketus · UNC -3900 polymarketus
| Book | UNC spread | Total | ETSU ML | UNC ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +1240 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +2400 | -3900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.