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Portland State Vikings
0-1 · #182 Elo
at
Fri, Sep 18, 10:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
Oregon Ducks
1-0 · #3 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Oregon Ducks are 28.6 points better (#3 vs #182 of 240), and ORE add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
ORE
ORE rated 28.6 points better on Elo (#3 vs #182).
Home & rest
Even
—
ORE gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ORE
ORE +7.0 per game over the last five, PRST −33.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Portland State VikingsOregon Ducks
1382 Elo · #182
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ORE +28.6 pts
1896 Elo · #3
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−17.6 pts vs ORE D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ORE +38.9 pts
+21.3 pts vs PRST D
L · −33.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ORE +20.0 pts
W · +7.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| PRST | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 20.0 | Points for / game | 34.0 |
| 53.0 | Points against / game | 27.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| PRST | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1382 | Elo | 1896 |
| #182 of 240 | Rank | #3 of 240 |
| −6.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +13.1 |
| −8.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +10.9 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1554 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
| 2023 | PRST 7 at ORE 81 | ORE · ORE covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ORE +28.6 pts
- Home field
- ORE +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.