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Oregon Ducks
1-0 · #3 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium · 90° · 20 mph wind · Sunny
Oklahoma State Cowboys
0-1 · #233 Elo
Spread ORE -21.5 (opened ORE -19.5)Total 58.5Moneyline ORE -2100 · OKST +10604 books · best ORE -950 hardrockbet · OKST +1100 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ORE -2100
97%
model margin ORE by 32.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
ORE -21.5
54%
11.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Under 58.5
54%
model total 45.9
The read
On rating alone Oregon Ducks are 35.8 points better (#3 vs #233 of 240), and OKST add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: ORE passing ranks #16, OKST defends it at #132; the other way OKST #127 into ORE's #26. The model lands on ORE by 32.8 against a market ORE by 21.5, so the spread lean is ORE by 11.3 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 45.9 against 58.5, with weather taking 2.9 off.
Who has the edge
Model: ORE by 32.8 · market ORE by 21.5
Rating
Clear edge
ORE
ORE rated 35.8 points better on Elo (#233 vs #3).
Home & rest
Clear edge
OKST
OKST gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
ORE
ORE passing ranks #16, OKST defends it at #132; the other way OKST #127 into ORE's #26.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
ORE
ORE rushing ranks #16, OKST defends it at #98; the other way OKST #133 into ORE's #39.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
ORE
ORE third-down conversion ranks #18, OKST defends it at #112; the other way OKST #108 into ORE's #53.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ORE
OKST −14.0 per game over the last five, ORE +7.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
ORE
Consensus has ORE by 21.5; the model says ORE by 32.8.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: ORE by 32.8 · market ORE by 21.5
Oregon DucksOklahoma State Cowboys
1896 Elo · #3
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ORE +35.8 pts
1251 Elo · #233
road
Home field
OKST +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+10.8 pts vs OKST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ORE +29.7 pts
−19.0 pts vs ORE D
W · +7.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ORE +10.5 pts
L · −14.0
+25.9
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
ORE +41.0 pts
−15.1
ORE -21.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
ORE +21.5 pts
OKST +21.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ORE standard-down ppa (#4) against a OKST defense ranked #130 at stopping it
- ▸ORE defense (#6 yards / pass attempt allowed) against a OKST offense ranked #129
- ▸ORE defense (#11 standard-down ppa allowed) against a OKST offense ranked #131
- ▸ORE yards / pass attempt (#14) against a OKST defense ranked #131 at stopping it
- ▸ORE passing ppa / play (#16) against a OKST defense ranked #132 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Oregon Ducks offense vs Oklahoma State Cowboys defense
ranks of 135| ORE off | OKST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 46% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 74% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 55 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:49 | 31:07 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.42#16 | +0.44#132 | ORE |
| Pass success rate | 49%#13 | 48%#129 | ORE |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.61#38 | 1.67#111 | ORE |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.7#14 | 8.9#131 | ORE |
| Completion % | 72%#3 | 66%#112 | ORE |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.4%#100 | 3.0%#41 | OKST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.23#16 | +0.16#98 | ORE |
| Rush success rate | 48%#18 | 43%#76 | ORE |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.04#42 | 1.07#117 | ORE |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.08#45 | 2.98#85 | ORE |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#30 | 20%#46 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 71%#73 | 67%#40 | OKST |
| Yards / rush | 5.4#13 | 4.4#81 | ORE |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.27#4 | +0.24#130 | ORE |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.39#36 | +0.37#105 | ORE |
| Third-down conversion | 47%#18 | 43%#112 | ORE |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.10#36 | 4.00#100 | ORE |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 10.9%#4 | 14.9%#87 | ORE |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#32 | 1.00#100 | ORE |
Oklahoma State Cowboys offense vs Oregon Ducks defense
ranks of 135| OKST off | ORE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 52% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 64% | 64% | · |
| Plays / game | 57 | 52 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:53 | 29:11 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.07#127 | +0.15#26 | ORE |
| Pass success rate | 35%#125 | 36%#14 | ORE |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.40#124 | 1.59#89 | ORE |
| Yards / pass attempt | 5.7#129 | 5.6#6 | ORE |
| Completion % | 58%#114 | 53%#4 | ORE |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.6%#28 | 2.4%#69 | OKST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | −0.04#133 | +0.05#39 | ORE |
| Rush success rate | 36%#127 | 38%#24 | ORE |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.89#100 | 0.98#78 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.59#126 | 2.72#35 | ORE |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#88 | 17%#99 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 69%#88 | 71%#68 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.5#123 | 3.5#20 | ORE |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.07#131 | −0.04#11 | ORE |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.15#121 | +0.21#30 | ORE |
| Third-down conversion | 35%#108 | 38%#53 | ORE |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.96#124 | 3.90#92 | ORE |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 18.8%#125 | 18.2%#21 | ORE |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.42#89 | 1.40#50 | ORE |
Season
| ORE | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 34.0 | Points for / game | 10.0 |
| 27.0 | Points against / game | 24.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| ORE | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1896 | Elo | 1251 |
| #3 of 240 | Rank | #233 of 240 |
| +13.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −8.1 |
| +10.9 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.3 |
| 1554 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1345 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ORE | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.2 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +6.9 |
| 0.305 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.011 |
| 0.049 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.280 |
| 48% / 36% | Success rate (off / def) | 35% / 45% |
| 1.32 / 1.28 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.17 / 1.37 |
| 984 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 673 |
| 75% | Returning production | 0% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | OKST 3 at ORE 69 | ORE · ORE covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ORE +35.8 pts
- Home field
- OKST +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -2.9 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ORE by 32.8
- Model total
- 45.9 vs 58.5
Market · 4 books
- Spread
- ORE -21.5 · opened ORE -19.5
- Total
- 58.5 · opened 60.5
- Moneyline
- ORE -2100 · OKST +1060
- Best price
- ORE -950 hardrockbet · OKST +1100 draftkings
| Book | OKST spread | Total | ORE ML | OKST ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +18.5 (-110) | — | — | — |
| draftkings | +22.5 (-115) | 59.5 (-112/-108) | -2100 | +1100 |
| fanduel | +21.5 (-110) | 57.5 (-110/-110) | -2100 | +1060 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | -950 | +600 |
Spreadopened ORE -18.5 · now ORE -21.5 ▼ 3.0
Totalopened 60.5 · now 58.5 ▼ 2.0
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.