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Boise State Broncos at #2Oregon Ducks
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET · Autzen Stadium · 65° · Intermittent clouds
ORE -24.5 · O/U 51.5
BOIS +1300 · ORE -2800
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
ORE -2800
83%
model margin ORE by 16.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
BOIS +24.5
53%
7.7 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
51%
model total 55.1
Power ratings
| Team | Elo | Off | Def | SOS | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State Broncos | 1608 | 2.3 | 5.5 | — | 0 |
| Oregon Ducks | 1856 | 13.5 | 12.2 | — | 0 |
Off/Def are points above league average scored / prevented, opponent-adjusted. SOS is the mean Elo of opponents faced this season.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ORE +248 Elo
- Home field
- ORE +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ORE by 16.8
- Market spread
- ORE -24.5
- Model total
- 55.1 vs 51.5
- Moneyline
- BOIS +1300 · ORE -2800
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.