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Navy Midshipmen
1-0 · #38 Elo
neutral site
Sat, Dec 12, 3:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
Army Black Knights
1-0 · #57 Elo
Spread NAVY -2.5Total 37.5Moneyline NAVY -142 · ARMY +120
The read
On rating alone Navy Midshipmen are 3.4 points better (#38 vs #57 of 240), on a neutral field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: NAVY third-down conversion ranks #4, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into NAVY's #66.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
NAVY
NAVY rated 3.4 points better on Elo (#57 vs #38).
Home & rest
Even
—
Neutral site — no home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
ARMY
ARMY passing ranks #7, NAVY defends it at #118; the other way NAVY #9 into ARMY's #88.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
NAVY
NAVY rushing ranks #6, ARMY defends it at #68; the other way ARMY #50 into NAVY's #75.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
NAVY
NAVY third-down conversion ranks #4, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into NAVY's #66.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
ARMY
ARMY +56.0 per game over the last five, NAVY +27.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
NAVY
Consensus has NAVY by 2.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Navy MidshipmenArmy Black Knights
1636 Elo · #38
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NAVY +3.4 pts
1574 Elo · #57
neutral
Home field
even
neutral
—
Rest
even
—
−6.4 pts vs ARMY D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ARMY +2.8 pts
−3.6 pts vs NAVY D
W · +27.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ARMY +14.5 pts
W · +56.0
+6.2
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
NAVY +5.4 pts
+0.8
NAVY -2.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
NAVY +2.5 pts
ARMY +2.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ARMY havoc rate faced (#1) against a NAVY defense ranked #123 at stopping it
- ▸NAVY third-down conversion (#4) against a ARMY defense ranked #121 at stopping it
- ▸NAVY havoc rate faced (#3) against a ARMY defense ranked #120 at stopping it
- ▸ARMY passing ppa / play (#7) against a NAVY defense ranked #118 at stopping it
- ▸NAVY stuff rate (#1) against a ARMY defense ranked #110 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Navy Midshipmen offense vs Army Black Knights defense
ranks of 135| NAVY off | ARMY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 23% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 77% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 59 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:37 | 25:24 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.46#9 | +0.29#88 | NAVY |
| Pass success rate | 42%#58 | 45%#114 | NAVY |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 2.01#3 | 1.48#38 | NAVY |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.3#6 | 6.9#55 | NAVY |
| Completion % | 58%#107 | 64%#89 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#115 | 1.4%#125 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.28#6 | +0.10#68 | NAVY |
| Rush success rate | 52%#4 | 45%#96 | NAVY |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.06#32 | 0.87#20 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.45#5 | 3.13#106 | NAVY |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 11%#1 | 16%#110 | NAVY |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 81%#13 | 75%#93 | NAVY |
| Yards / rush | 5.8#3 | 4.5#86 | NAVY |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.23#15 | +0.15#99 | NAVY |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.52#8 | +0.24#52 | NAVY |
| Third-down conversion | 52%#4 | 45%#121 | NAVY |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.22#28 | 3.76#75 | NAVY |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 9.2%#3 | 12.7%#120 | NAVY |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.08#43 | 1.23#75 | NAVY |
Army Black Knights offense vs Navy Midshipmen defense
ranks of 135| ARMY off | NAVY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 15% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 73% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 34:36 | 27:23 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.47#7 | +0.37#118 | ARMY |
| Pass success rate | 38%#106 | 44%#102 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 2.41#1 | 1.63#103 | ARMY |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#21 | 8.0#115 | ARMY |
| Completion % | 54%#131 | 64%#101 | NAVY |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 6.3%#133 | 1.6%#113 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.15#50 | +0.11#75 | · |
| Rush success rate | 43%#77 | 39%#26 | NAVY |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.96#70 | 1.06#113 | ARMY |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.06#48 | 2.85#59 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 13%#6 | 18%#80 | ARMY |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 78%#26 | 76%#102 | ARMY |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#65 | 4.1#59 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.17#34 | +0.17#111 | ARMY |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.25#89 | +0.30#71 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#52 | 39%#66 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.70#66 | 4.20#115 | ARMY |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 8.3%#1 | 12.5%#123 | ARMY |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.85#10 | 1.15#87 | ARMY |
Season
| NAVY | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 42.0 | Points for / game | 59.0 |
| 15.0 | Points against / game | 3.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| NAVY | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1636 | Elo | 1574 |
| #38 of 240 | Rank | #57 of 240 |
| +4.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +3.6 |
| +7.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +11.1 |
| 1421 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1421 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| NAVY | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.2 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −2.4 |
| 0.298 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.191 |
| 0.210 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.176 |
| 49% / 41% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 44% |
| 1.24 / 1.34 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.16 / 1.14 |
| 196 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 304 |
| 14% | Returning production | 80% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | ARMY 16 vs NAVY 17 | NAVY · ARMY covered |
| 2024 | NAVY 31 vs ARMY 13 | NAVY · NAVY covered |
| 2023 | ARMY 17 vs NAVY 11 | ARMY · ARMY covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NAVY +3.4 pts
- Home field
- Neutral site
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- NAVY -2.5
- Total
- 37.5
- Moneyline
- NAVY -142 · ARMY +120
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.