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Troy Trojans
1-0 · #116 Elo
at
Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
Arkansas State Red Wolves
0-1 · #186 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Troy Trojans are 3.7 points better (#116 vs #186 of 240), and ARST add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: TROY third-down conversion ranks #80, ARST defends it at #97; the other way ARST #74 into TROY's #58.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
TROY
TROY rated 3.7 points better on Elo (#186 vs #116).
Home & rest
Even
—
ARST gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
TROY
TROY passing ranks #110, ARST defends it at #99; the other way ARST #84 into TROY's #34.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
TROY
TROY rushing ranks #115, ARST defends it at #81; the other way ARST #124 into TROY's #64.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
TROY
TROY third-down conversion ranks #80, ARST defends it at #97; the other way ARST #74 into TROY's #58.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TROY
ARST −18.0 per game over the last five, TROY +3.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Troy TrojansArkansas State Red Wolves
1445 Elo · #116
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TROY +3.7 pts
1378 Elo · #186
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−4.3 pts vs ARST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TROY +0.2 pts
−4.4 pts vs TROY D
W · +3.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TROY +10.5 pts
L · −18.0
−4.8
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
TROY +4.0 pts
−8.8
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸TROY defense (#30 points / scoring opportunity allowed) against a ARST offense ranked #109
- ▸TROY pass explosiveness (#26) against a ARST defense ranked #88 at stopping it
- ▸TROY defense (#48 standard-down ppa allowed) against a ARST offense ranked #110
- ▸ARST defense (#64 stuff rate forced) against a TROY offense ranked #125
- ▸TROY defense (#64 rushing ppa / play allowed) against a ARST offense ranked #124
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Troy Trojans offense vs Arkansas State Red Wolves defense
ranks of 135| TROY off | ARST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 68 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:55 | 30:29 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.17#110 | +0.31#99 | · |
| Pass success rate | 38%#105 | 44%#98 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.69#26 | 1.58#88 | TROY |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.8#92 | 8.1#118 | · |
| Completion % | 58%#110 | 68%#131 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.3%#65 | 3.1%#37 | ARST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.02#115 | +0.12#81 | ARST |
| Rush success rate | 39%#110 | 44%#83 | ARST |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.87#114 | 1.01#94 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.82#89 | 2.75#44 | ARST |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 23%#125 | 19%#64 | ARST |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 78%#24 | 69%#49 | · |
| Yards / rush | 2.8#131 | 4.5#89 | ARST |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.00#117 | +0.09#69 | ARST |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#77 | +0.42#118 | TROY |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#80 | 42%#97 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.67#71 | 3.90#89 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 19.6%#127 | 15.5%#71 | ARST |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.29#72 | 1.23#74 | · |
Arkansas State Red Wolves offense vs Troy Trojans defense
ranks of 135| ARST off | TROY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 44% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 73 | 66 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:31 | 30:05 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.21#84 | +0.17#34 | TROY |
| Pass success rate | 44%#47 | 39%#41 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.40#121 | 1.70#119 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.6#97 | 7.1#63 | TROY |
| Completion % | 66%#30 | 60%#44 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.4%#20 | 3.1%#36 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | −0.01#124 | +0.09#64 | TROY |
| Rush success rate | 40%#100 | 41%#57 | TROY |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.80#126 | 0.96#66 | TROY |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.65#118 | 3.01#95 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 21%#110 | 20%#57 | TROY |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 70%#80 | 66%#31 | TROY |
| Yards / rush | 3.6#117 | 4.5#87 | TROY |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.02#110 | +0.06#48 | TROY |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.27#82 | +0.23#44 | TROY |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#74 | 38%#58 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.31#109 | 3.17#30 | TROY |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.8%#110 | 16.4%#54 | TROY |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.77#122 | 1.29#66 | TROY |
Season
| TROY | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 24.0 | Points for / game | 24.0 |
| 21.0 | Points against / game | 42.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| TROY | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1445 | Elo | 1378 |
| #116 of 240 | Rank | #186 of 240 |
| −5.0 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.7 |
| +3.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.8 |
| 1116 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1631 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| TROY | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| −8.0 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −11.6 |
| 0.096 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.095 |
| 0.116 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.191 |
| 38% / 40% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 43% |
| 1.30 / 1.29 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.16 / 1.29 |
| 596 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 606 |
| 35% | Returning production | 30% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | ARST 23 at TROY 10 | ARST · ARST covered |
| 2024 | TROY 31 at ARST 34 | ARST · TROY covered |
| 2023 | ARST 3 at TROY 37 | TROY · TROY covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TROY +3.7 pts
- Home field
- ARST +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.