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Spread TEX -2.5Total 53.5Moneyline TEX -142 · TA&M +120
The read
On rating alone Texas A&M Aggies are 1.3 points better (#10 vs #13 of 240), and TA&M add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: TA&M passing ranks #26, TEX defends it at #53; the other way TEX #50 into TA&M's #13.
Who has the edge
Rating
Slight edge
TA&M
TA&M rated 1.3 points better on Elo (#10 vs #13).
Home & rest
Even
—
TA&M gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M passing ranks #26, TEX defends it at #53; the other way TEX #50 into TA&M's #13.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
TEX
TEX rushing ranks #83, TA&M defends it at #95; the other way TA&M #47 into TEX's #19.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
TA&M
TA&M third-down conversion ranks #58, TEX defends it at #18; the other way TEX #75 into TA&M's #1.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
TA&M +50.0 per game over the last five, TEX +52.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
TEX
Consensus has TEX by 2.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Texas LonghornsTexas A&M Aggies
1787 Elo · #13
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TA&M +1.3 pts
1810 Elo · #10
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−0.7 pts vs TA&M D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TEX +1.7 pts
−2.4 pts vs TEX D
W · +52.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TEX +1.0 pts
W · +50.0
+16.2
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
TA&M +4.5 pts
+20.7
TEX -2.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
TEX +2.5 pts
TA&M +2.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸TA&M interception rate (#4) against a TEX defense ranked #120 at stopping it
- ▸TEX turnovers / game (#6) against a TA&M defense ranked #121 at stopping it
- ▸TA&M defense (#5 pass success rate allowed) against a TEX offense ranked #99
- ▸TA&M defense (#21 interceptions forced) against a TEX offense ranked #112
- ▸TA&M defense (#39 stuff rate forced) against a TEX offense ranked #119
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Texas Longhorns offense vs Texas A&M Aggies defense
ranks of 135| TEX off | TA&M def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 61% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 55 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:30 | 27:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.29#50 | +0.10#13 | TA&M |
| Pass success rate | 39%#99 | 33%#5 | TA&M |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.75#11 | 1.59#90 | TEX |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.8#40 | 6.0#13 | TA&M |
| Completion % | 61%#77 | 56%#16 | TA&M |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#112 | 3.7%#21 | TA&M |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.08#83 | +0.15#95 | · |
| Rush success rate | 42%#82 | 36%#9 | TA&M |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.94#79 | 1.29#135 | TEX |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.83#86 | 2.67#26 | TA&M |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 22%#119 | 21%#39 | TA&M |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 63%#115 | 75%#98 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.2#82 | 4.2#66 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.05#102 | +0.07#55 | TA&M |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.43#26 | +0.22#34 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#75 | 22%#1 | TA&M |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.52#88 | 3.91#95 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.9%#77 | 21.4%#4 | TA&M |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.69#6 | 0.77#121 | TEX |
Texas A&M Aggies offense vs Texas Longhorns defense
ranks of 135| TA&M off | TEX def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 55% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 65 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:30 | 31:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.38#26 | +0.20#53 | TA&M |
| Pass success rate | 46%#27 | 39%#42 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.55#66 | 1.48#39 | TEX |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#24 | 6.6#39 | · |
| Completion % | 61%#82 | 63%#78 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 0.7%#4 | 1.5%#120 | TA&M |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.16#47 | +0.01#19 | TEX |
| Rush success rate | 47%#35 | 40%#46 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.93#83 | 0.84#12 | TEX |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.16#31 | 2.69#30 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#28 | 21%#33 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 75%#49 | 57%#5 | TEX |
| Yards / rush | 4.9#32 | 3.1#12 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.23#16 | +0.05#40 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#74 | +0.22#38 | TEX |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#58 | 33%#18 | TEX |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.14#33 | 3.77#76 | TA&M |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.1%#5 | 17.9%#24 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.46#93 | 1.77#18 | TEX |
Season
| TEX | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 59.0 | Points for / game | 50.0 |
| 7.0 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| TEX | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1787 | Elo | 1810 |
| #13 of 240 | Rank | #10 of 240 |
| +13.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +9.7 |
| +12.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +13.9 |
| 1546 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1355 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| TEX | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.8 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +20.9 |
| 0.179 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.242 |
| 0.104 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.126 |
| 40% / 39% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 34% |
| 1.37 / 1.18 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.23 / 1.45 |
| 985 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 933 |
| 72% | Returning production | 73% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | TA&M 17 at TEX 27 | TEX · TEX covered |
| 2024 | TEX 17 at TA&M 7 | TEX · TEX covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TA&M +1.3 pts
- Home field
- TA&M +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- TEX -2.5
- Total
- 53.5
- Moneyline
- TEX -142 · TA&M +120
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.