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New Mexico State Aggies
1-1 · #231 Elo
at
Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Missouri State Bears
0-1 · #205 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Missouri State Bears are 4.9 points better (#205 vs #231 of 240), and MOST add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: NMSU rushing ranks #134, MOST defends it at #101; the other way MOST #112 into NMSU's #15.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
MOST
MOST rated 4.9 points better on Elo (#205 vs #231).
Home & rest
Even
—
MOST gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
MOST
MOST passing ranks #41, NMSU defends it at #76; the other way NMSU #111 into MOST's #106.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
NMSU
NMSU rushing ranks #134, MOST defends it at #101; the other way MOST #112 into NMSU's #15.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
NMSU
NMSU third-down conversion ranks #45, MOST defends it at #82; the other way MOST #101 into NMSU's #95.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
NMSU
MOST −50.0 per game over the last five, NMSU +10.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
New Mexico State AggiesMissouri State Bears
1261 Elo · #231
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MOST +4.9 pts
1349 Elo · #205
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−0.7 pts vs MOST D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MOST +0.4 pts
−0.3 pts vs NMSU D
W L · +10.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
NMSU +30.0 pts
L · −50.0
−15.5
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
MOST +4.8 pts
−10.7
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸NMSU defense (#15 rushing ppa / play allowed) against a MOST offense ranked #112
- ▸MOST defense (#47 line yards / rush allowed) against a NMSU offense ranked #133
- ▸NMSU defense (#58 stuff rate forced) against a MOST offense ranked #134
- ▸MOST defense (#59 stuff rate forced) against a NMSU offense ranked #133
- ▸NMSU defense (#11 takeaways / game) against a MOST offense ranked #85
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
New Mexico State Aggies offense vs Missouri State Bears defense
ranks of 135| NMSU off | MOST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 59% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 64% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 68 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:06 | 28:39 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.17#111 | +0.33#106 | · |
| Pass success rate | 40%#90 | 43%#92 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.44#109 | 1.56#69 | MOST |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.4#114 | 7.2#74 | MOST |
| Completion % | 58%#104 | 64%#103 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.2%#87 | 2.7%#53 | MOST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | −0.09#134 | +0.16#101 | MOST |
| Rush success rate | 33%#134 | 43%#72 | MOST |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.91#88 | 1.03#101 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.13#133 | 2.76#47 | MOST |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 26%#133 | 20%#59 | MOST |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 69%#89 | 83%#128 | NMSU |
| Yards / rush | 2.6#135 | 4.7#100 | MOST |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.04#128 | +0.19#118 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.20#107 | +0.33#88 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 42%#45 | 40%#82 | NMSU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.21#113 | 3.89#88 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 20.3%#132 | 15.0%#84 | MOST |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 2.00#131 | 1.15#88 | MOST |
Missouri State Bears offense vs New Mexico State Aggies defense
ranks of 135| MOST off | NMSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 64% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 72 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:21 | 29:52 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.34#41 | +0.26#76 | MOST |
| Pass success rate | 42%#59 | 44%#108 | MOST |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.78#8 | 1.49#43 | MOST |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.4#20 | 7.0#58 | MOST |
| Completion % | 64%#51 | 64%#95 | MOST |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.8%#40 | 3.9%#10 | NMSU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.03#112 | +0.00#15 | NMSU |
| Rush success rate | 37%#123 | 41%#52 | NMSU |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.07#29 | 0.92#44 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.49#130 | 2.99#90 | NMSU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 27%#134 | 20%#58 | NMSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 61%#125 | 71%#69 | NMSU |
| Yards / rush | 3.6#114 | 4.4#84 | NMSU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.13#58 | +0.05#41 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.27#83 | +0.23#45 | NMSU |
| Third-down conversion | 36%#101 | 41%#95 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.69#67 | 3.29#34 | NMSU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 23.9%#135 | 15.6%#70 | NMSU |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.38#85 | 1.92#11 | NMSU |
Season
| NMSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 34.0 | Points for / game | 0.0 |
| 24.0 | Points against / game | 50.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| NMSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1261 | Elo | 1349 |
| #231 of 240 | Rank | #205 of 240 |
| −4.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −2.5 |
| −2.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −4.3 |
| 1580 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1804 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| NMSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| −18.5 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −19.1 |
| 0.049 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.177 |
| 0.105 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.232 |
| 37% / 42% | Success rate (off / def) | 39% / 43% |
| 1.26 / 1.21 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.50 / 1.31 |
| 460 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 550 |
| 24% | Returning production | 31% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | MOST 24 at NMSU 17 | MOST · MOST covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MOST +4.9 pts
- Home field
- MOST +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.