← College Football slate
Spread LSU -3.5Total 54.5Moneyline ALA +154 · LSU -185
The read
On rating alone Alabama Crimson Tide are 6.9 points better (#15 vs #33 of 240), and LSU add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: ALA passing ranks #37, LSU defends it at #39; the other way LSU #104 into ALA's #17.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
ALA
ALA rated 6.9 points better on Elo (#33 vs #15).
Home & rest
Even
—
LSU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
ALA
ALA passing ranks #37, LSU defends it at #39; the other way LSU #104 into ALA's #17.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
LSU
LSU rushing ranks #120, ALA defends it at #65; the other way ALA #114 into LSU's #18.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
ALA
ALA third-down conversion ranks #46, LSU defends it at #28; the other way LSU #97 into ALA's #51.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
LSU
LSU +41.0 per game over the last five, ALA +38.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
LSU
Consensus has LSU by 3.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Alabama Crimson TideLSU Tigers
1776 Elo · #15
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ALA +6.9 pts
1651 Elo · #33
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
+1.7 pts vs LSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
ALA +11.7 pts
−10.0 pts vs ALA D
W · +38.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
LSU +1.5 pts
W · +41.0
+14.8
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
ALA +4.5 pts
+10.3
ALA +3.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
LSU +3.5 pts
LSU -3.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ALA defense (#19 standard-down ppa allowed) against a LSU offense ranked #126
- ▸LSU defense (#9 stuff rate forced) against a ALA offense ranked #108
- ▸LSU defense (#18 rushing ppa / play allowed) against a ALA offense ranked #114
- ▸LSU defense (#15 line yards / rush allowed) against a ALA offense ranked #108
- ▸ALA defense (#31 rush success rate allowed) against a LSU offense ranked #121
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Alabama Crimson Tide offense vs LSU Tigers defense
ranks of 135| ALA off | LSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:35 | 29:44 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.35#37 | +0.18#39 | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#33 | 39%#44 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.57#53 | 1.56#70 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.6#53 | 6.4#27 | · |
| Completion % | 66%#33 | 60%#39 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#56 | 1.7%#110 | ALA |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.02#114 | +0.01#18 | LSU |
| Rush success rate | 40%#102 | 39%#34 | LSU |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.83#122 | 0.90#39 | LSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.73#108 | 2.59#15 | LSU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 21%#108 | 25%#9 | LSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 67%#99 | 64%#19 | LSU |
| Yards / rush | 3.4#126 | 3.8#43 | LSU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.11#68 | +0.01#21 | LSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.40#29 | +0.22#37 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 42%#46 | 34%#28 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.04#38 | 3.25#32 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.5%#39 | 17.0%#41 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.87#15 | 1.62#31 | · |
LSU Tigers offense vs Alabama Crimson Tide defense
ranks of 135| LSU off | ALA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 64% | 65% | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 56 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:16 | 28:25 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.18#104 | +0.11#17 | ALA |
| Pass success rate | 41%#82 | 38%#33 | ALA |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.44#108 | 1.51#49 | ALA |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.7#94 | 6.4#31 | ALA |
| Completion % | 66%#31 | 62%#72 | LSU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#114 | 1.3%#130 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.01#120 | +0.10#65 | ALA |
| Rush success rate | 37%#121 | 39%#31 | ALA |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.92#87 | 1.00#90 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.46#131 | 2.81#53 | ALA |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 25%#132 | 19%#66 | ALA |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 64%#114 | 75%#100 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.7#111 | 3.7#37 | ALA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.03#126 | −0.01#19 | ALA |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.23#95 | +0.25#53 | ALA |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#97 | 37%#51 | ALA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.35#103 | 3.65#66 | ALA |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.9%#113 | 17.7%#26 | ALA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.08#42 | 1.33#58 | · |
Season
| ALA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 48.0 | Points for / game | 51.0 |
| 10.0 | Points against / game | 10.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| ALA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1776 | Elo | 1651 |
| #15 of 240 | Rank | #33 of 240 |
| +10.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.4 |
| +12.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +8.4 |
| 1623 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ALA | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.6 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +20.4 |
| 0.198 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.063 |
| 0.082 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.082 |
| 43% / 38% | Success rate (off / def) | 39% / 39% |
| 1.27 / 1.24 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.22 / 1.24 |
| 974 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 932 |
| 26% | Returning production | 21% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | LSU 9 at ALA 20 | ALA · ALA covered |
| 2024 | ALA 42 at LSU 13 | ALA · ALA covered |
| 2023 | LSU 28 at ALA 42 | ALA · ALA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ALA +6.9 pts
- Home field
- LSU +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- LSU -3.5
- Total
- 54.5
- Moneyline
- ALA +154 · LSU -185
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.