The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
83%North Dakota State BisonStrong✓
Built on the market's no-vig price. Model alone: North Dakota State Bison 70%.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NDSU by 9.0market NDSU by 14.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.1 pointsmarket 42.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Dakota State Bison at 83% to win, with the market at NDSU by 14.5.
NDSU has the advantage in passing: NDSU passing ranks #78, NEV defends it at #57; the other way NEV #116 into NDSU's #1.
NDSU has the advantage in rushing: NDSU rushing ranks #95, NEV defends it at #85; the other way NEV #66 into NDSU's #13.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours NEV. NEV sack rate ranks #30, NDSU defends it at #73; the other way NDSU #49 into NEV's #18. The pick still lands on NDSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NDSU has the better last five games by 8.8 points a game (NDSU +10.4, NEV +1.6).
Home field is with NDSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NDSU by 9.0 against a market NDSU by 14.5: 5.5 points of daylight in NEV's favour. The model's total is 40.1 against a line of 42.5: 2.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NDSU by 9.0 · market NDSU by 14.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU passing ranks #78, NEV defends it at #57; the other way NEV #116 into NDSU's #1.
Rushing game
NDSU
Slight advantage
NDSU rushing ranks #95, NEV defends it at #85; the other way NEV #66 into NDSU's #13.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #79, NEV defends it at #73; the other way NEV #46 into NDSU's #1.
Big plays
NDSU
Slight advantage
NDSU pass explosiveness ranks #30, NEV defends it at #98; the other way NEV #31 into NDSU's #72.
Pass protection & rush
NEV
Clear advantage
NEV sack rate ranks #30, NDSU defends it at #73; the other way NDSU #49 into NEV's #18.
Ball security
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU turnovers / game ranks #50, NEV defends it at #136; the other way NEV #119 into NDSU's #12.
Form (last 5)
NDSU
Clear advantage
NDSU +10.4 per game over the last five, NEV +1.6.
Market
NDSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has NDSU by 14.5; the model says NDSU by 9.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,330 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NDSU by 14.5 · model NDSU by 9.0
Mkt NDSU 14.5
Model NDSU 9.0
← NEV by 28tieNDSU by 28 →
8.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.7%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 40.1
Mkt 42.5
Model 40.1
24 pts6096 pts
4.5% of FBS games finish between 42.5 and 40.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 52.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: NEVModel disagrees
Opened
NDSU -16.5
→
Market maker now
NDSU -14
▼ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
NDSU -14
in line
24 moves8 books2 led
Mon, Oct 12, 1:49 PM first sharp move: NDSU -16.5 → NDSU -15.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still NDSU -15.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel agrees
Opened
46
→
Market maker now
42.8
▼ 2.5 since open
→
Retail now
42.5
in line
22 moves8 books3 led
Mon, Oct 12, 7:49 PM first sharp move: 46 → 45
6 books followed within six hours
Retail was still 45.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
