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Penn State Nittany Lions
1-0 · #14 Elo
at
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM ET
Michigan Stadium
Michigan Wolverines
1-0 · #28 Elo
Spread MICH -6.5Total 51.5Moneyline PSU +220 · MICH -270
The read
On rating alone Penn State Nittany Lions are 5.1 points better (#14 vs #28 of 240), and MICH add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: PSU passing ranks #53, MICH defends it at #58; the other way MICH #95 into PSU's #40.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
PSU
PSU rated 5.1 points better on Elo (#28 vs #14).
Home & rest
Even
—
MICH gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
PSU
PSU passing ranks #53, MICH defends it at #58; the other way MICH #95 into PSU's #40.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
MICH
MICH rushing ranks #17, PSU defends it at #74; the other way PSU #25 into MICH's #49.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
PSU
MICH third-down conversion ranks #32, PSU defends it at #93; the other way PSU #33 into MICH's #52.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
PSU
MICH +1.0 per game over the last five, PSU +45.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
MICH
Consensus has MICH by 6.5.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Penn State Nittany LionsMichigan Wolverines
1780 Elo · #14
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
PSU +5.1 pts
1688 Elo · #28
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
+0.0 pts vs MICH D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
PSU +10.2 pts
−10.2 pts vs PSU D
W · +45.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
PSU +22.0 pts
W · +1.0
+18.1
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
PSU +5.7 pts
+12.4
PSU +6.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
MICH +6.5 pts
MICH -6.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MICH defense (#3 pass explosiveness allowed) against a PSU offense ranked #110
- ▸MICH rush success rate (#13) against a PSU defense ranked #94 at stopping it
- ▸PSU defense (#26 pass explosiveness allowed) against a MICH offense ranked #106
- ▸PSU pass success rate (#32) against a MICH defense ranked #105 at stopping it
- ▸PSU completion % (#22) against a MICH defense ranked #92 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Penn State Nittany Lions offense vs Michigan Wolverines defense
ranks of 135| PSU off | MICH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 43% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 74% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 58 | 64 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:30 | 30:13 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.28#53 | +0.22#58 | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#32 | 44%#105 | PSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.44#110 | 1.34#3 | MICH |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.2#67 | 6.5#32 | MICH |
| Completion % | 67%#22 | 64%#92 | PSU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.8%#37 | 2.3%#71 | PSU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.21#25 | +0.07#49 | · |
| Rush success rate | 47%#33 | 41%#58 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.00#52 | 0.88#22 | MICH |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.12#38 | 2.68#28 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#34 | 18%#85 | PSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 76%#43 | 59%#11 | MICH |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#36 | 3.4#19 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.19#29 | +0.00#20 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.35#52 | +0.40#114 | PSU |
| Third-down conversion | 44%#33 | 37%#52 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.32#25 | 3.79#81 | PSU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.5%#41 | 16.7%#48 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.77#7 | 1.46#42 | PSU |
Michigan Wolverines offense vs Penn State Nittany Lions defense
ranks of 135| MICH off | PSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 44% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 54 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:47 | 30:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.20#95 | +0.18#40 | PSU |
| Pass success rate | 40%#87 | 38%#36 | PSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.46#106 | 1.46#26 | PSU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.1#70 | 6.5#38 | PSU |
| Completion % | 59%#94 | 63%#80 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#113 | 1.9%#95 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.23#17 | +0.11#74 | MICH |
| Rush success rate | 49%#13 | 44%#94 | MICH |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.98#62 | 0.93#54 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.29#16 | 2.97#83 | MICH |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 14%#9 | 18%#77 | MICH |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 77%#33 | 69%#54 | · |
| Yards / rush | 5.5#11 | 4.1#60 | MICH |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.17#37 | +0.07#57 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.25#90 | +0.23#49 | PSU |
| Third-down conversion | 44%#32 | 41%#93 | MICH |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.64#74 | 3.33#37 | PSU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.1%#13 | 15.9%#63 | MICH |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.31#75 | 1.00#107 | MICH |
Season
| PSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 45.0 | Points for / game | 13.0 |
| 0.0 | Points against / game | 12.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| PSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1780 | Elo | 1688 |
| #14 of 240 | Rank | #28 of 240 |
| +9.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +3.2 |
| +13.4 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +9.3 |
| 1442 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1512 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| PSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.2 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +17.0 |
| 0.230 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.190 |
| 0.118 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.122 |
| 46% / 41% | Success rate (off / def) | 44% / 42% |
| 1.20 / 1.17 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.17 / 1.13 |
| 774 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 890 |
| 8% | Returning production | 69% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2023 | MICH 24 at PSU 15 | MICH · MICH covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- PSU +5.1 pts
- Home field
- MICH +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- MICH -6.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Moneyline
- PSU +220 · MICH -270
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.