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Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Texas A&M Aggies are 5.3 points better (#10 vs #21 of 240), and MIZ add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: MIZ rushing ranks #15, TA&M defends it at #95; the other way TA&M #47 into MIZ's #20.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M rated 5.3 points better on Elo (#21 vs #10).
Home & rest
Even
—
MIZ gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M passing ranks #26, MIZ defends it at #14; the other way MIZ #107 into TA&M's #13.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
MIZ
MIZ rushing ranks #15, TA&M defends it at #95; the other way TA&M #47 into MIZ's #20.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
TA&M third-down conversion ranks #58, MIZ defends it at #38; the other way MIZ #30 into TA&M's #1.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TA&M
MIZ +40.0 per game over the last five, TA&M +50.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Texas A&M AggiesMissouri Tigers
1810 Elo · #10
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TA&M +5.3 pts
1715 Elo · #21
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−1.3 pts vs MIZ D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TA&M +7.2 pts
−8.6 pts vs TA&M D
W · +50.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TA&M +5.0 pts
W · +40.0
+20.7
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
TA&M +6.3 pts
+14.4
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MIZ rush explosiveness (#26) against a TA&M defense ranked #135 at stopping it
- ▸MIZ power success (#1) against a TA&M defense ranked #98 at stopping it
- ▸TA&M defense (#13 passing ppa / play allowed) against a MIZ offense ranked #107
- ▸MIZ rushing ppa / play (#15) against a TA&M defense ranked #95 at stopping it
- ▸TA&M defense (#13 yards / pass attempt allowed) against a MIZ offense ranked #91
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Texas A&M Aggies offense vs Missouri Tigers defense
ranks of 135| TA&M off | MIZ def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 65% | · |
| Plays / game | 65 | 55 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:30 | 28:09 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.38#26 | +0.10#14 | · |
| Pass success rate | 46%#27 | 35%#12 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.55#66 | 1.58#81 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#24 | 5.9#9 | · |
| Completion % | 61%#82 | 57%#19 | MIZ |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 0.7%#4 | 2.9%#43 | TA&M |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.16#47 | +0.01#20 | MIZ |
| Rush success rate | 47%#35 | 36%#8 | MIZ |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.93#83 | 0.95#65 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.16#31 | 2.64#23 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#28 | 21%#37 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 75%#49 | 69%#50 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.9#32 | 3.2#13 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.23#16 | −0.08#7 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#74 | +0.27#60 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#58 | 35%#38 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.14#33 | 3.36#40 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.1%#5 | 19.8%#8 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.46#93 | 0.92#109 | · |
Missouri Tigers offense vs Texas A&M Aggies defense
ranks of 135| MIZ off | TA&M def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 43% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 61% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 55 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:51 | 27:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.18#107 | +0.10#13 | TA&M |
| Pass success rate | 42%#64 | 33%#5 | TA&M |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.43#114 | 1.59#90 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.8#91 | 6.0#13 | TA&M |
| Completion % | 63%#54 | 56%#16 | TA&M |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.9%#46 | 3.7%#21 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.23#15 | +0.15#95 | MIZ |
| Rush success rate | 48%#21 | 36%#9 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.08#26 | 1.29#135 | MIZ |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.12#37 | 2.67#26 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 17%#44 | 21%#39 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 89%#1 | 75%#98 | MIZ |
| Yards / rush | 5.3#17 | 4.2#66 | MIZ |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.16#43 | +0.07#55 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#76 | +0.22#34 | TA&M |
| Third-down conversion | 45%#30 | 22%#1 | TA&M |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.85#55 | 3.91#95 | MIZ |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.8%#23 | 21.4%#4 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.31#76 | 0.77#121 | MIZ |
Season
| TA&M | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 50.0 | Points for / game | 54.0 |
| 0.0 | Points against / game | 14.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| TA&M | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1810 | Elo | 1715 |
| #10 of 240 | Rank | #21 of 240 |
| +9.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +5.3 |
| +13.9 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +11.1 |
| 1355 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1409 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| TA&M | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.9 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +15.4 |
| 0.242 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.196 |
| 0.126 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.039 |
| 46% / 34% | Success rate (off / def) | 45% / 35% |
| 1.23 / 1.45 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.22 / 1.27 |
| 933 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 808 |
| 73% | Returning production | 42% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | TA&M 38 at MIZ 17 | TA&M · TA&M covered |
| 2024 | MIZ 10 at TA&M 41 | TA&M · TA&M covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TA&M +5.3 pts
- Home field
- MIZ +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.