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Southern Miss Golden Eagles
1-0 · #119 Elo
at
Tue, Oct 6, 8:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Troy Trojans
1-0 · #116 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Troy Trojans are 0.1 points better (#116 vs #119 of 240), and TROY add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: USM passing ranks #57, TROY defends it at #34; the other way TROY #110 into USM's #19.
Who has the edge
Rating
Even
—
TROY rated 0.1 points better on Elo (#116 vs #119).
Home & rest
Even
—
TROY gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
USM
USM passing ranks #57, TROY defends it at #34; the other way TROY #110 into USM's #19.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
USM rushing ranks #74, TROY defends it at #64; the other way TROY #115 into USM's #89.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
TROY
TROY third-down conversion ranks #80, USM defends it at #126; the other way USM #70 into TROY's #58.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
USM
TROY +3.0 per game over the last five, USM +46.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Southern Miss Golden EaglesTroy Trojans
1443 Elo · #119
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TROY +0.1 pts
1445 Elo · #116
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−3.2 pts vs TROY D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
USM +3.6 pts
−6.8 pts vs USM D
W · +46.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
USM +21.5 pts
W · +3.0
−7.1
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
TROY +2.3 pts
−4.8
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸USM pass explosiveness (#15) against a TROY defense ranked #119 at stopping it
- ▸USM defense (#31 havoc rate) against a TROY offense ranked #127
- ▸TROY defense (#36 interceptions forced) against a USM offense ranked #129
- ▸USM defense (#19 passing ppa / play allowed) against a TROY offense ranked #110
- ▸TROY power success (#24) against a USM defense ranked #113 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles offense vs Troy Trojans defense
ranks of 135| USM off | TROY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 44% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 66 | · |
| Possession / game | 27:43 | 30:05 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.28#57 | +0.17#34 | · |
| Pass success rate | 40%#89 | 39%#41 | TROY |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.73#15 | 1.70#119 | USM |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.6#50 | 7.1#63 | · |
| Completion % | 64%#52 | 60%#44 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 5.1%#129 | 3.1%#36 | TROY |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.10#74 | +0.09#64 | · |
| Rush success rate | 39%#105 | 41%#57 | TROY |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.93#81 | 0.96#66 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.96#64 | 3.01#95 | USM |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#69 | 20%#57 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 67%#98 | 66%#31 | TROY |
| Yards / rush | 3.8#105 | 4.5#87 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.09#82 | +0.06#48 | TROY |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.33#56 | +0.23#44 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#70 | 38%#58 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.60#81 | 3.17#30 | TROY |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.3%#90 | 16.4%#54 | TROY |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.15#54 | 1.29#66 | · |
Troy Trojans offense vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense
ranks of 135| TROY off | USM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 69 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:55 | 32:16 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.17#110 | +0.13#19 | USM |
| Pass success rate | 38%#105 | 41%#61 | USM |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.69#26 | 1.49#42 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.8#92 | 6.9#56 | USM |
| Completion % | 58%#110 | 63%#87 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.3%#65 | 2.6%#56 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.02#115 | +0.14#89 | · |
| Rush success rate | 39%#110 | 43%#75 | USM |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.87#114 | 1.01#92 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.82#89 | 2.99#88 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 23%#125 | 18%#73 | USM |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 78%#24 | 78%#113 | TROY |
| Yards / rush | 2.8#131 | 4.2#64 | USM |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.00#117 | +0.03#30 | USM |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#77 | +0.27#61 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#80 | 46%#126 | TROY |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.67#71 | 3.94#97 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 19.6%#127 | 17.4%#31 | USM |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.29#72 | 2.23#3 | USM |
Season
| USM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 49.0 | Points for / game | 24.0 |
| 3.0 | Points against / game | 21.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| USM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1443 | Elo | 1445 |
| #119 of 240 | Rank | #116 of 240 |
| +0.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −5.0 |
| +1.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.7 |
| 1379 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1116 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| USM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| −20.7 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −8.0 |
| 0.177 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.096 |
| 0.103 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.116 |
| 39% / 41% | Success rate (off / def) | 38% / 40% |
| 1.34 / 1.21 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.30 / 1.29 |
| 603 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 596 |
| 90% | Returning production | 35% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | TROY 28 at USM 18 | TROY · TROY covered |
| 2024 | USM 20 at TROY 52 | TROY · TROY covered |
| 2023 | TROY 35 at USM 17 | TROY · TROY covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TROY +0.1 pts
- Home field
- TROY +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.