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UL Monroe Warhawks
0-1 · #236 Elo
at
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 AM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
South Alabama Jaguars
1-0 · #97 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone South Alabama Jaguars are 15.4 points better (#97 vs #236 of 240), and USA add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: USA third-down conversion ranks #39, ULM defends it at #108; the other way ULM #123 into USA's #57.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
USA
USA rated 15.4 points better on Elo (#97 vs #236).
Home & rest
Even
—
USA gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
ULM passing ranks #89, USA defends it at #112; the other way USA #78 into ULM's #100.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
ULM rushing ranks #105, USA defends it at #108; the other way USA #60 into ULM's #54.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
USA
USA third-down conversion ranks #39, ULM defends it at #108; the other way ULM #123 into USA's #57.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
USA
USA +25.0 per game over the last five, ULM −49.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
UL Monroe WarhawksSouth Alabama Jaguars
1185 Elo · #236
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
USA +15.4 pts
1462 Elo · #97
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−8.6 pts vs USA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
USA +14.5 pts
+5.9 pts vs ULM D
L · −49.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
USA +37.0 pts
W · +25.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ULM pass explosiveness (#7) against a USA defense ranked #128 at stopping it
- ▸ULM power success (#28) against a USA defense ranked #135 at stopping it
- ▸USA turnovers / game (#33) against a ULM defense ranked #128 at stopping it
- ▸USA points / scoring opportunity (#40) against a ULM defense ranked #118 at stopping it
- ▸ULM interception rate (#29) against a USA defense ranked #104 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
UL Monroe Warhawks offense vs South Alabama Jaguars defense
ranks of 135| ULM off | USA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 43% | 44% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 63% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 52 | 65 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:38 | 27:57 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.21#89 | +0.34#112 | · |
| Pass success rate | 38%#108 | 40%#48 | USA |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.80#7 | 1.77#128 | ULM |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.3#117 | 7.2#71 | USA |
| Completion % | 57%#119 | 61%#56 | USA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.7%#29 | 1.8%#104 | ULM |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.05#105 | +0.18#108 | · |
| Rush success rate | 36%#126 | 47%#113 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.11#14 | 0.92#49 | ULM |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.70#111 | 3.15#108 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 25%#129 | 17%#102 | USA |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 78%#28 | 91%#135 | ULM |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#56 | 4.8#108 | ULM |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.04#107 | +0.17#114 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.16#117 | +0.37#103 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 33%#123 | 38%#57 | USA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.19#118 | 4.35#126 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 20.5%#133 | 14.6%#93 | USA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.58#106 | 1.25#71 | USA |
South Alabama Jaguars offense vs UL Monroe Warhawks defense
ranks of 135| USA off | ULM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 38% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 69% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 70 | 62 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:09 | 30:23 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.23#78 | +0.31#100 | · |
| Pass success rate | 40%#92 | 42%#74 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.53#81 | 1.68#114 | USA |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.0#77 | 7.6#99 | · |
| Completion % | 68%#12 | 63%#85 | USA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.9%#45 | 3.4%#30 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.14#60 | +0.08#54 | · |
| Rush success rate | 43%#75 | 40%#44 | ULM |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.02#49 | 1.03#102 | USA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.03#56 | 2.83#56 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#26 | 18%#87 | USA |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 76%#40 | 74%#91 | USA |
| Yards / rush | 4.5#57 | 4.3#74 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.10#70 | +0.11#74 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#72 | +0.36#102 | USA |
| Third-down conversion | 43%#39 | 43%#108 | USA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.01#40 | 4.21#118 | USA |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.0%#31 | 14.4%#101 | USA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#33 | 0.75#128 | USA |
Season
| ULM | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 13.0 | Points for / game | 39.0 |
| 62.0 | Points against / game | 14.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| ULM | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1185 | Elo | 1462 |
| #236 of 240 | Rank | #97 of 240 |
| −9.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +0.1 |
| −5.9 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −0.8 |
| 1541 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1358 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ULM | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| −28.9 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | — |
| 0.086 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.159 |
| 0.186 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.238 |
| 36% / 41% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 43% |
| 1.41 / 1.36 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.21 / 1.27 |
| 505 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | — |
| 39% | Returning production | — |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | USA 26 at ULM 14 | USA · USA covered |
| 2024 | ULM 17 at USA 46 | USA · USA covered |
| 2023 | USA 55 at ULM 7 | USA · USA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- USA +15.4 pts
- Home field
- USA +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.