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Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Texas A&M Aggies are 16.8 points better (#10 vs #78 of 240), and TA&M add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: TA&M passing ranks #26, ARK defends it at #131; the other way ARK #31 into TA&M's #13.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M rated 16.8 points better on Elo (#10 vs #78).
Home & rest
Even
—
TA&M gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M passing ranks #26, ARK defends it at #131; the other way ARK #31 into TA&M's #13.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
ARK rushing ranks #4, TA&M defends it at #95; the other way TA&M #47 into ARK's #124.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
TA&M
TA&M third-down conversion ranks #58, ARK defends it at #118; the other way ARK #16 into TA&M's #1.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M +50.0 per game over the last five, ARK +17.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Arkansas RazorbacksTexas A&M Aggies
1507 Elo · #78
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TA&M +16.8 pts
1810 Elo · #10
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−7.7 pts vs TA&M D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TA&M +15.4 pts
+7.6 pts vs ARK D
W · +17.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TA&M +16.5 pts
W · +50.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ARK rush explosiveness (#25) against a TA&M defense ranked #135 at stopping it
- ▸TA&M standard-down ppa (#16) against a ARK defense ranked #122 at stopping it
- ▸TA&M passing ppa / play (#26) against a ARK defense ranked #131 at stopping it
- ▸TA&M yards / pass attempt (#24) against a ARK defense ranked #125 at stopping it
- ▸TA&M defense (#4 havoc rate) against a ARK offense ranked #101
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Arkansas Razorbacks offense vs Texas A&M Aggies defense
ranks of 135| ARK off | TA&M def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 69% | 61% | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 55 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:01 | 27:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.37#31 | +0.10#13 | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#38 | 33%#5 | TA&M |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.70#22 | 1.59#90 | ARK |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#23 | 6.0#13 | · |
| Completion % | 61%#86 | 56%#16 | TA&M |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.6%#24 | 3.7%#21 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.30#4 | +0.15#95 | ARK |
| Rush success rate | 54%#1 | 36%#9 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.08#25 | 1.29#135 | ARK |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.43#6 | 2.67#26 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#92 | 21%#39 | TA&M |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 65%#105 | 75%#98 | · |
| Yards / rush | 5.7#5 | 4.2#66 | ARK |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.19#28 | +0.07#55 | ARK |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.58#5 | +0.22#34 | ARK |
| Third-down conversion | 47%#16 | 22%#1 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.20#31 | 3.91#95 | ARK |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.9%#101 | 21.4%#4 | TA&M |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.67#114 | 0.77#121 | · |
Texas A&M Aggies offense vs Arkansas Razorbacks defense
ranks of 135| TA&M off | ARK def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 44% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 65 | 62 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:30 | 30:59 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.38#26 | +0.44#131 | TA&M |
| Pass success rate | 46%#27 | 46%#117 | TA&M |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.55#66 | 1.71#121 | TA&M |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#24 | 8.5#125 | TA&M |
| Completion % | 61%#82 | 63%#79 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 0.7%#4 | 3.2%#31 | TA&M |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.16#47 | +0.21#124 | TA&M |
| Rush success rate | 47%#35 | 50%#131 | TA&M |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.93#83 | 0.95#60 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.16#31 | 3.05#99 | TA&M |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#28 | 19%#63 | TA&M |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 75%#49 | 71%#67 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.9#32 | 4.8#107 | TA&M |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.23#16 | +0.20#122 | TA&M |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#74 | +0.44#128 | TA&M |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#58 | 44%#118 | TA&M |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.14#33 | 4.21#119 | TA&M |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.1%#5 | 15.4%#73 | TA&M |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.46#93 | 0.75#122 | TA&M |
Season
| ARK | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 31.0 | Points for / game | 50.0 |
| 14.0 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| ARK | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1507 | Elo | 1810 |
| #78 of 240 | Rank | #10 of 240 |
| +6.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +9.7 |
| +2.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +13.9 |
| 1436 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1355 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ARK | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| — | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +20.9 |
| 0.311 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.242 |
| 0.274 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.126 |
| 49% / 47% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 34% |
| 1.36 / 1.27 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.23 / 1.45 |
| — | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 933 |
| — | Returning production | 73% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | TA&M 45 at ARK 42 | TA&M · ARK covered |
| 2024 | ARK 17 vs TA&M 21 | TA&M · ARK covered |
| 2023 | TA&M 34 vs ARK 22 | TA&M · TA&M covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TA&M +16.8 pts
- Home field
- TA&M +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.