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at
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
0-1 · #72 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
Who has the edge
Rating
not priced
—
No rating yet.
Home & rest
Even
—
WKU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
WKU −35.0 per game over the last five, MERC −37.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Mercyhurst LakersWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers
—
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
not priced
1519 Elo · #72
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
—
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
not priced
—
L · −37.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
WKU +1.0 pts
L · −35.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| MERC | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 14.0 | Points for / game | 14.0 |
| 51.0 | Points against / game | 49.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| MERC | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Elo | 1519 |
| — | Rank | #72 of 240 |
| — | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.1 |
| — | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.8 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- —
- Home field
- WKU +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.