Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Mercyhurst Lakers
0-2
Model predicts
20 – 44
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · 72° · Intermittent clouds
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
0-3
Spread WKU -40.5 (opened WKU -37.5)Total 57.5Moneyline MERC +3500 · WKU -200004 books · best MERC +3500 fanduel · WKU -20000 fanduel
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
WKU -20000
92%
model margin WKU by 23.7
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
MERC +40.5
56%
16.8 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean +
Over 57.5
52%
model total 64.1 · best over 56.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has WKU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, MERC. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The model lands on WKU by 23.7 against a market WKU by 40.5, so the spread lean is MERC by 16.8 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself. On the total the model sees 64.1 against 57.5.

Who has the edge

Model: WKU by 23.7 · market WKU by 40.5
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
WKU
WKU −41.0 per game over the last five, MERC −50.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
WKU
Consensus has WKU by 40.5; the model says WKU by 23.7.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket WKU by 40.5 · model WKU by 23.7
Mkt WKU 40.5
Model WKU 23.7
-28028

17.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 57.5 · model 64.1
Mkt 57.5
Model 64.1
246096

14.3% of FBS games finish between 57.5 and 64.1 — the games where the over cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: WKU · model disagrees
Opened
WKU -37.5
Pinnacle now
WKU -40.5(+2)
Retail now
WKU -40.5
Moves
7 across 4 books · 4 led

First sharp move Wed 8:52 PM: WKU -38.5 → WKU -39, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still WKU -38.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model agrees
Opened
54.5
Pinnacle now
58.5(+2)
Retail now
56.5+2 behind
Moves
5 across 4 books · 4 led

First sharp move Thu 1:56 PM: 56.5 → 58.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 56.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.