← College Football slate
Central Arkansas Bears
0-1 last yr · #105 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 AM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
Florida State Seminoles
1-0 · #50 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Florida State Seminoles are 7.4 points better (#50 vs #105 of 240), and FSU add 0.0 for home field.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
FSU
FSU rated 7.4 points better on Elo (#50 vs #105).
Home & rest
Even
—
FSU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
FSU
FSU +17.0 per game over the last five, CARK −55.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Central Arkansas BearsFlorida State Seminoles
1456 Elo · #105
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
FSU +7.4 pts
1590 Elo · #50
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−8.3 pts vs FSU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
FSU +14.0 pts
+5.7 pts vs CARK D
L · −55.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
FSU +36.0 pts
W · +17.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| CARK | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 6.0 | Points for / game | 34.0 |
| 61.0 | Points against / game | 17.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| CARK | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1456 | Elo | 1590 |
| #105 of 240 | Rank | #50 of 240 |
| −2.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.2 |
| −3.5 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +6.0 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1270 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- FSU +7.4 pts
- Home field
- FSU +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.