Probetrics — Sports Analytics
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Central Arkansas Bears
0-1 last yr
Model predicts
15 – 44
Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium · 85° · Mostly sunny
Florida State Seminoles
1-2
Spread FSU -45.5 (opened FSU -43.5)Total 61.5Moneyline —4 books
Save imageSquare
WinnerProbability the picked team wins. Calibrated: when the model says 65%, it has been right about that often.Strong
FSU
95%
model margin FSU by 29.1
SpreadThe model's lean on this number. It can name the other team from the Winner tile; see the note below when it happens.Lean +
CARK +45.5
56%
16.4 pts from the number
TotalThe model's lean on this total, shown so you can see its number against the posted one.Lean
Under 61.5
51%
model total 59.7 · best under 62.5 at fanduel
ⓘWinner and Spread don't match — that's not a contradiction. The model still has FSU winning the game outright; it just doesn't think they win by enough to cover this number, so the spread lean is the other side, CARK. A slight favorite can easily be the value side to take points with.

The read

The model lands on FSU by 29.1 against a market FSU by 45.5, so the spread lean is CARK by 16.4 points — a lean for reading the game, not the call itself.

Who has the edge

Model: FSU by 29.1 · market FSU by 45.5
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
FSU
FSU 0.0 per game over the last five, CARK −55.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
FSU
Consensus has FSU by 45.5; the model says FSU by 29.1.
context · not in the margin

Where the lines sit Every FBS final since 2023, counted by margin and by total. The dashed lines are the market's number and the model's; the bright bars between them are the share of history that landed in the gap — the games the two numbers actually disagree about. Key numbers (the most common margins) are the pale bars.

3,024 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket FSU by 45.5 · model FSU by 29.1
Mkt FSU 45.5
Model FSU 29.1
-28028

12.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers — the zone where the model’s side covers and the market’s does not. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.6%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 61.5 · model 59.7
Mkt 61.5
Model 59.7
246096

2.9% of FBS games finish between 61.5 and 59.7 — the games where the under cashes on the model’s read but not by much. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read Sharp money cannot be seen; who moved first can. Pinnacle and the other market makers move on the bets they respect and retail books copy them hours later. This tracks the market maker's number against retail, its move since the open, and whether the market followed. Recording started September 2026 and it is graded on its own — it is not a pick until a season of results says it should be.

— tap to see the market-maker read ↓
Spread
Sharp side: FSU · model disagrees
Opened
FSU -43.5
Pinnacle now
FSU -45.5(+1)
Retail now
FSU -45.5
Moves
5 across 4 books · 1 led

First sharp move Wed 8:52 PM: FSU -44.5 → FSU -45, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still FSU -44.5.

Total
Sharp side: the over · model disagrees
Opened
58.5
Pinnacle now
61.5(+2)
Retail now
61.5
Moves
7 across 4 books · 2 led

First sharp move Wed 5:24 PM: 59.5 → 60.5, 0 books followed within six hours; retail was still 60.5.

Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. Model reads, not personalized advice. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.