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Missouri State Bears
0-1 · #205 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 AM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
SMU Mustangs
9-4 last yr · #22 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone SMU Mustangs are 20.3 points better (#22 vs #205 of 240), and SMU add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: SMU rushing ranks #70, MOST defends it at #101; the other way MOST #112 into SMU's #5.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
SMU
SMU rated 20.3 points better on Elo (#22 vs #205).
Home & rest
Even
—
SMU gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
SMU
SMU passing ranks #23, MOST defends it at #106; the other way MOST #41 into SMU's #42.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
SMU
SMU rushing ranks #70, MOST defends it at #101; the other way MOST #112 into SMU's #5.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
SMU
SMU third-down conversion ranks #56, MOST defends it at #82; the other way MOST #101 into SMU's #44.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SMU
SMU +14.4 per game over the last five, MOST −50.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Missouri State BearsSMU Mustangs
1349 Elo · #205
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SMU +20.3 pts
1714 Elo · #22
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−11.6 pts vs SMU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SMU +23.0 pts
+11.4 pts vs MOST D
L · −50.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SMU +32.2 pts
W L W W W · +14.4
−10.7
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
SMU +24.1 pts
+13.4
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸SMU defense (#16 havoc rate) against a MOST offense ranked #135
- ▸SMU defense (#8 power success allowed) against a MOST offense ranked #125
- ▸SMU defense (#23 stuff rate forced) against a MOST offense ranked #134
- ▸SMU power success (#19) against a MOST defense ranked #128 at stopping it
- ▸SMU defense (#5 rushing ppa / play allowed) against a MOST offense ranked #112
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Missouri State Bears offense vs SMU Mustangs defense
ranks of 135| MOST off | SMU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 56% | 55% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 64% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 70 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:21 | 33:07 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.34#41 | +0.19#42 | · |
| Pass success rate | 42%#59 | 43%#90 | MOST |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.78#8 | 1.46#33 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.4#20 | 7.1#62 | MOST |
| Completion % | 64%#51 | 61%#58 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.8%#40 | 2.5%#60 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.03#112 | −0.08#5 | SMU |
| Rush success rate | 37%#123 | 38%#18 | SMU |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.07#29 | 0.78#4 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.49#130 | 2.76#46 | SMU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 27%#134 | 22%#23 | SMU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 61%#125 | 59%#8 | SMU |
| Yards / rush | 3.6#114 | 3.2#14 | SMU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.13#58 | −0.09#5 | SMU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.27#83 | +0.29#68 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 36%#101 | 36%#44 | SMU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.69#67 | 2.79#12 | SMU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 23.9%#135 | 18.8%#16 | SMU |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.38#85 | 2.15#5 | SMU |
SMU Mustangs offense vs Missouri State Bears defense
ranks of 135| SMU off | MOST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 55% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 64 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 26:53 | 28:39 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.40#23 | +0.33#106 | SMU |
| Pass success rate | 44%#39 | 43%#92 | SMU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.61#37 | 1.56#69 | SMU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.0#35 | 7.2#74 | SMU |
| Completion % | 66%#26 | 64%#103 | SMU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.9%#120 | 2.7%#53 | MOST |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.11#70 | +0.16#101 | SMU |
| Rush success rate | 42%#92 | 43%#72 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.00#56 | 1.03#101 | SMU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.90#74 | 2.76#47 | MOST |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#81 | 20%#59 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 79%#19 | 83%#128 | SMU |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#71 | 4.7#100 | SMU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.16#46 | +0.19#118 | SMU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.39#37 | +0.33#88 | SMU |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#56 | 40%#82 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.89#52 | 3.89#88 | SMU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.8%#99 | 15.0%#84 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.46#94 | 1.15#88 | · |
Season
| MOST | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 9-4 |
| 0.0 | Points for / game | 32.2 |
| 50.0 | Points against / game | 20.5 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 6-1 / 3-3 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 6-7 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 4-9 |
| L | Last 5 | W L W W W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| MOST | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1349 | Elo | 1714 |
| #205 of 240 | Rank | #22 of 240 |
| −2.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +7.2 |
| −4.3 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +9.1 |
| 1804 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| MOST | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| −19.1 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +12.1 |
| 0.177 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.231 |
| 0.232 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.030 |
| 39% / 43% | Success rate (off / def) | 43% / 40% |
| 1.50 / 1.31 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.36 / 1.18 |
| 550 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 765 |
| 31% | Returning production | 57% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | SMU 28 at MOST 10 | SMU · MOST covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SMU +20.3 pts
- Home field
- SMU +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.