← College Football slate
Spread —Total —Moneyline —
The read
On rating alone Texas A&M Aggies are 13.3 points better (#10 vs #58 of 240), and TA&M add 0.0 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: TA&M passing ranks #26, UK defends it at #98; the other way UK #100 into TA&M's #13.
Who has the edge
Rating
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M rated 13.3 points better on Elo (#10 vs #58).
Home & rest
Even
—
TA&M gets 0.0 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M passing ranks #26, UK defends it at #98; the other way UK #100 into TA&M's #13.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
TA&M rushing ranks #47, UK defends it at #62; the other way UK #97 into TA&M's #95.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
TA&M
TA&M third-down conversion ranks #58, UK defends it at #73; the other way UK #63 into TA&M's #1.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TA&M
TA&M +50.0 per game over the last five, UK +32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Kentucky WildcatsTexas A&M Aggies
1570 Elo · #58
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TA&M +13.3 pts
1810 Elo · #10
road
Home field
not priced
home
—
Rest
even
—
−11.7 pts vs TA&M D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TA&M +15.3 pts
+3.5 pts vs UK D
W · +32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TA&M +9.0 pts
W · +50.0
+1.8
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
TA&M +18.9 pts
+20.7
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸TA&M defense (#4 havoc rate) against a UK offense ranked #109
- ▸TA&M defense (#34 passing-down ppa allowed) against a UK offense ranked #133
- ▸TA&M yards / pass attempt (#24) against a UK defense ranked #116 at stopping it
- ▸TA&M defense (#5 pass success rate allowed) against a UK offense ranked #94
- ▸TA&M defense (#13 passing ppa / play allowed) against a UK offense ranked #100
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Kentucky Wildcats offense vs Texas A&M Aggies defense
ranks of 135| UK off | TA&M def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 69% | 61% | · |
| Plays / game | 58 | 55 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:38 | 27:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.19#100 | +0.10#13 | TA&M |
| Pass success rate | 40%#94 | 33%#5 | TA&M |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.56#59 | 1.59#90 | UK |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.6#98 | 6.0#13 | TA&M |
| Completion % | 62%#64 | 56%#16 | TA&M |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.3%#95 | 3.7%#21 | TA&M |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.06#97 | +0.15#95 | · |
| Rush success rate | 45%#53 | 36%#9 | TA&M |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.82#124 | 1.29#135 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.05#51 | 2.67#26 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#50 | 21%#39 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 70%#84 | 75%#98 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.9#99 | 4.2#66 | TA&M |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.10#71 | +0.07#55 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.02#133 | +0.22#34 | TA&M |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#63 | 22%#1 | TA&M |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.84#56 | 3.91#95 | UK |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.7%#109 | 21.4%#4 | TA&M |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.83#126 | 0.77#121 | · |
Texas A&M Aggies offense vs Kentucky Wildcats defense
ranks of 135| TA&M off | UK def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 47% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 65 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:30 | 29:22 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.38#26 | +0.31#98 | TA&M |
| Pass success rate | 46%#27 | 45%#113 | TA&M |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.55#66 | 1.55#63 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#24 | 8.0#116 | TA&M |
| Completion % | 61%#82 | 62%#67 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 0.7%#4 | 3.9%#11 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.16#47 | +0.09#62 | · |
| Rush success rate | 47%#35 | 44%#84 | TA&M |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.93#83 | 0.90#40 | UK |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.16#31 | 2.89#69 | TA&M |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#28 | 20%#53 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 75%#49 | 68%#44 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.9#32 | 3.7#32 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.23#16 | +0.13#90 | TA&M |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#74 | +0.31#76 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 41%#58 | 40%#73 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.14#33 | 3.98#99 | TA&M |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.1%#5 | 14.7%#92 | TA&M |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.46#93 | 1.17#80 | · |
Season
| UK | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 45.0 | Points for / game | 50.0 |
| 13.0 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| UK | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1570 | Elo | 1810 |
| #58 of 240 | Rank | #10 of 240 |
| +2.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +9.7 |
| +6.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +13.9 |
| 1425 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1355 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| UK | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.2 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +20.9 |
| 0.076 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.242 |
| 0.184 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.126 |
| 42% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 34% |
| 1.15 / 1.23 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.23 / 1.45 |
| 787 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 933 |
| 19% | Returning production | 73% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TA&M +13.3 pts
- Home field
- TA&M +— pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- — pts on the total
- Model margin
- —
- Model total
- —
Market
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- —
Per-book prices appear once the multi-book feed has this game (about a week out).
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.