The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
98%Oregon DucksStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 45.3market ORE by 58.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
67.4 pointsmarket 71.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 98% to win, with the market at ORE by 58.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Rest: PRST has 7 more days since its last game (ORE 6d, PRST 13d).
Form: ORE has the better last five games by 82.8 points a game (ORE +24.3, PRST -58.5).
Home field is with ORE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 45.3 against a market ORE by 58.5: 13.2 points of daylight in PRST's favour. The model's total is 67.4 against a line of 71.5: 4.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 45.3 · market ORE by 58.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE +24.3 per game over the last five, PRST −58.5.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 58.5; the model says ORE by 45.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 58.5 · model ORE by 45.3
Mkt ORE 58.5
Model ORE 45.3
← PRST by 28tieORE by 28 →
4.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 71.5 · model 67.4
Mkt 71.5
Model 67.4
24 pts6096 pts
6.2% of FBS games finish between 71.5 and 67.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
