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New Mexico State Aggies
1-1 · #231 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 87° · Mostly sunny
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
0-1 · #84 Elo
Spread HAW -11.5Total 51.5Moneyline NMSU +310 · HAW -395
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
HAW -395
82%
model margin HAW by 15.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
HAW -11.5
51%
4.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
51%
model total 55.1
The read
On rating alone Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors are 12.7 points better (#84 vs #231 of 240), and HAW add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: HAW passing ranks #47, NMSU defends it at #76; the other way NMSU #111 into HAW's #75. The model lands on HAW by 15.8 against a market HAW by 11.5, so the spread lean is HAW by 4.3 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 55.1 against 51.5.
Who has the edge
Model: HAW by 15.8 · market HAW by 11.5
Rating
Clear edge
HAW
HAW rated 12.7 points better on Elo (#84 vs #231).
Home & rest
Clear edge
HAW
HAW gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
HAW
HAW passing ranks #47, NMSU defends it at #76; the other way NMSU #111 into HAW's #75.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
NMSU
NMSU rushing ranks #134, HAW defends it at #66; the other way HAW #116 into NMSU's #15.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
HAW
HAW third-down conversion ranks #29, NMSU defends it at #95; the other way NMSU #45 into HAW's #45.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
NMSU
HAW −10.0 per game over the last five, NMSU +10.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
HAW
Consensus has HAW by 11.5; the model says HAW by 15.8.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: HAW by 15.8 · market HAW by 11.5
New Mexico State AggiesHawai'i Rainbow Warriors
1261 Elo · #231
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
HAW +12.7 pts
1490 Elo · #84
road
Home field
HAW +3.1 pts
home
14d
Rest
even
14d
−6.6 pts vs HAW D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
HAW +11.2 pts
+4.6 pts vs NMSU D
W L · +10.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
NMSU +10.0 pts
L · −10.0
−15.5
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
HAW +17.2 pts
+1.7
NMSU +11.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
HAW +11.5 pts
HAW -11.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸NMSU defense (#15 rushing ppa / play allowed) against a HAW offense ranked #116
- ▸HAW defense (#36 standard-down ppa allowed) against a NMSU offense ranked #128
- ▸HAW defense (#39 points / scoring opportunity allowed) against a NMSU offense ranked #113
- ▸HAW defense (#61 havoc rate) against a NMSU offense ranked #132
- ▸HAW defense (#36 completion % allowed) against a NMSU offense ranked #104
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
New Mexico State Aggies offense vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors defense
ranks of 135| NMSU off | HAW def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 59% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 64% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 68 | 59 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:06 | 28:02 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.17#111 | +0.26#75 | HAW |
| Pass success rate | 40%#90 | 41%#60 | HAW |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.44#109 | 1.57#78 | HAW |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.4#114 | 7.5#91 | · |
| Completion % | 58%#104 | 59%#36 | HAW |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.2%#87 | 3.0%#39 | HAW |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | −0.09#134 | +0.10#66 | HAW |
| Rush success rate | 33%#134 | 43%#74 | HAW |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.91#88 | 0.97#76 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.13#133 | 3.21#119 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 26%#133 | 16%#115 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 69%#89 | 81%#122 | NMSU |
| Yards / rush | 2.6#135 | 4.2#67 | HAW |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.04#128 | +0.04#36 | HAW |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.20#107 | +0.43#124 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 42%#45 | 36%#45 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.21#113 | 3.35#39 | HAW |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 20.3%#132 | 16.0%#61 | HAW |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 2.00#131 | 1.15#91 | HAW |
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors offense vs New Mexico State Aggies defense
ranks of 135| HAW off | NMSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 62% | 48% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 72 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:57 | 29:52 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.31#47 | +0.26#76 | HAW |
| Pass success rate | 44%#49 | 44%#108 | HAW |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.56#61 | 1.49#43 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.0#79 | 7.0#58 | · |
| Completion % | 65%#40 | 64%#95 | HAW |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.5%#23 | 3.9%#10 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.02#116 | +0.00#15 | NMSU |
| Rush success rate | 38%#116 | 41%#52 | NMSU |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.91#91 | 0.92#44 | NMSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.80#95 | 2.99#90 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#97 | 20%#58 | NMSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 59%#130 | 71%#69 | NMSU |
| Yards / rush | 3.7#108 | 4.4#84 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.09#84 | +0.05#41 | NMSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.37#41 | +0.23#45 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 45%#29 | 41%#95 | HAW |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.77#60 | 3.29#34 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.2%#15 | 15.6%#70 | HAW |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.31#77 | 1.92#11 | NMSU |
Season
| NMSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 34.0 | Points for / game | 27.0 |
| 24.0 | Points against / game | 37.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W L | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| NMSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1261 | Elo | 1490 |
| #231 of 240 | Rank | #84 of 240 |
| −4.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +2.5 |
| −2.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +1.7 |
| 1580 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1470 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| NMSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| −18.5 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −2.6 |
| 0.049 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.184 |
| 0.105 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.174 |
| 37% / 42% | Success rate (off / def) | 41% / 42% |
| 1.26 / 1.21 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.34 / 1.29 |
| 460 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 557 |
| 24% | Returning production | 65% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2023 | NMSU 17 at HAW 20 | HAW · push |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- HAW +12.7 pts
- Home field
- HAW +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- HAW by 15.8
- Model total
- 55.1 vs 51.5
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- HAW -11.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Moneyline
- NMSU +310 · HAW -395
- Best price
- NMSU +310 draftkings · HAW -395 draftkings
| Book | HAW spread | Total | NMSU ML | HAW ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | +310 | -395 |
Spreadopened HAW -11.5 · now HAW -11.5
Totalopened 51.5 · now 51.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.