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Arkansas Razorbacks
1-0 · #78 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 10:15 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium · 76° · 16 mph wind · Clear
Utah Utes
1-0 · #9 Elo
Spread UTAH -10.5 (opened UTAH -9.5)Total 56.5Moneyline ARK +295 · UTAH -3753 books · best ARK +360 fanduel · UTAH -350 hardrockbet
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
UTAH -375
90%
model margin UTAH by 21.8
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
UTAH -10.5
54%
11.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 56.5
54%
model total 69.1
The read
On rating alone Utah Utes are 18.4 points better (#9 vs #78 of 240), and UTAH add 3.1 for home field; UTAH carry a rest edge worth 0.3. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: UTAH passing ranks #30, ARK defends it at #131; the other way ARK #31 into UTAH's #4. The model lands on UTAH by 21.8 against a market UTAH by 10.5, so the spread lean is UTAH by 11.3 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 69.1 against 56.5, with weather taking 1.4 off.
Who has the edge
Model: UTAH by 21.8 · market UTAH by 10.5
Rating
Clear edge
UTAH
UTAH rated 18.4 points better on Elo (#9 vs #78).
Home & rest
Clear edge
UTAH
UTAH gets 3.1 points for home field and UTAH 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
Clear edge
UTAH
UTAH passing ranks #30, ARK defends it at #131; the other way ARK #31 into UTAH's #4.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
UTAH rushing ranks #2, ARK defends it at #124; the other way ARK #4 into UTAH's #114.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
UTAH
UTAH third-down conversion ranks #2, ARK defends it at #118; the other way ARK #16 into UTAH's #31.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UTAH
UTAH +52.0 per game over the last five, ARK +17.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UTAH
Consensus has UTAH by 10.5; the model says UTAH by 21.8.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: UTAH by 21.8 · market UTAH by 10.5
Arkansas RazorbacksUtah Utes
1507 Elo · #78
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
UTAH +18.4 pts
1838 Elo · #9
road
Home field
UTAH +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
UTAH +0.3 pts
9d
−2.4 pts vs UTAH D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
UTAH +18.3 pts
+15.9 pts vs ARK D
W · +17.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UTAH +17.5 pts
W · +52.0
ARK +10.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
UTAH +10.5 pts
UTAH -10.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸UTAH rush success rate (#5) against a ARK defense ranked #131 at stopping it
- ▸UTAH passing-down ppa (#2) against a ARK defense ranked #128 at stopping it
- ▸UTAH rushing ppa / play (#2) against a ARK defense ranked #124 at stopping it
- ▸UTAH points / scoring opportunity (#2) against a ARK defense ranked #119 at stopping it
- ▸UTAH third-down conversion (#2) against a ARK defense ranked #118 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Arkansas Razorbacks offense vs Utah Utes defense
ranks of 135| ARK off | UTAH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 47% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 69% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 54 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:01 | 29:12 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.37#31 | +0.01#4 | UTAH |
| Pass success rate | 45%#38 | 33%#8 | UTAH |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.70#22 | 1.70#117 | ARK |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.3#23 | 6.0#12 | · |
| Completion % | 61%#86 | 49%#1 | UTAH |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.6%#24 | 1.3%#128 | ARK |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.30#4 | +0.18#114 | ARK |
| Rush success rate | 54%#1 | 43%#79 | ARK |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.08#25 | 1.11#125 | ARK |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.43#6 | 2.87#63 | ARK |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#92 | 20%#51 | UTAH |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 65%#105 | 73%#81 | · |
| Yards / rush | 5.7#5 | 4.8#110 | ARK |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.19#28 | +0.06#49 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.58#5 | +0.10#6 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 47%#16 | 35%#31 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.20#31 | 2.93#16 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.9%#101 | 16.9%#43 | UTAH |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.67#114 | 1.38#55 | UTAH |
Utah Utes offense vs Arkansas Razorbacks defense
ranks of 135| UTAH off | ARK def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 44% | 44% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 72% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 63 | 62 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:48 | 30:59 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.38#30 | +0.44#131 | UTAH |
| Pass success rate | 47%#23 | 46%#117 | UTAH |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.52#83 | 1.71#121 | UTAH |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.5#54 | 8.5#125 | UTAH |
| Completion % | 63%#61 | 63%#79 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 4.0%#122 | 3.2%#31 | ARK |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.35#2 | +0.21#124 | UTAH |
| Rush success rate | 51%#5 | 50%#131 | UTAH |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.10#18 | 0.95#60 | UTAH |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.55#2 | 3.05#99 | UTAH |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 13%#3 | 19%#63 | UTAH |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 82%#6 | 71%#67 | UTAH |
| Yards / rush | 6.0#1 | 4.8#107 | UTAH |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.24#10 | +0.20#122 | UTAH |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.65#2 | +0.44#128 | UTAH |
| Third-down conversion | 53%#2 | 44%#118 | UTAH |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.01#2 | 4.21#119 | UTAH |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.4%#18 | 15.4%#73 | UTAH |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.92#18 | 0.75#122 | UTAH |
Season
| ARK | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 31.0 | Points for / game | 66.0 |
| 14.0 | Points against / game | 14.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| ARK | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1507 | Elo | 1838 |
| #78 of 240 | Rank | #9 of 240 |
| +6.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +18.0 |
| +2.1 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +8.6 |
| 1436 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1484 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ARK | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| — | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +9.8 |
| 0.311 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.356 |
| 0.274 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.074 |
| 49% / 47% | Success rate (off / def) | 49% / 38% |
| 1.36 / 1.27 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.27 / 1.34 |
| — | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 696 |
| — | Returning production | 68% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- UTAH +18.4 pts
- Home field
- UTAH +3.1 pts
- Rest
- UTAH +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- -1.4 pts on the total
- Model margin
- UTAH by 21.8
- Model total
- 69.1 vs 56.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- UTAH -10.5 · opened UTAH -9.5
- Total
- 56.5
- Moneyline
- ARK +295 · UTAH -375
- Best price
- ARK +360 fanduel · UTAH -350 hardrockbet
| Book | UTAH spread | Total | ARK ML | UTAH ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -9.5 (-108) | 56.5 (-110/-110) | +295 | -375 |
| fanduel | -11.5 (-110) | 56.5 (-110/-110) | +360 | -480 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +260 | -350 |
Spreadopened UTAH -9.5 · now UTAH -10.5 ▲ 1.0
Totalopened 56.25 · now 56.5 ▲ 0.3
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.