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North Dakota State Bison
2-0 · #61 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium · 71° · 16 mph wind · Mostly clear
Air Force Falcons
1-0 · #85 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline NDSU -200 · AFA +1282 books · best NDSU -182 polymarketus · AFA +147 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
NDSU -200
54%
model margin NDSU by 1.5
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 44.1
The read
On rating alone North Dakota State Bison are 4.6 points better (#61 vs #85 of 240), and AFA add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: NDSU by 1.5
Rating
Clear edge
NDSU
NDSU rated 4.6 points better on Elo (#85 vs #61).
Home & rest
Clear edge
AFA
AFA gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
AFA +34.0 per game over the last five, NDSU +32.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: NDSU by 1.5
North Dakota State BisonAir Force Falcons
1559 Elo · #61
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NDSU +4.6 pts
1476 Elo · #85
road
Home field
AFA +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−3.6 pts vs AFA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
NDSU +4.4 pts
−8.0 pts vs NDSU D
W W · +32.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
AFA +1.0 pts
W · +34.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| NDSU | AFA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 35.5 | Points for / game | 34.0 |
| 3.5 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 2-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| NDSU | AFA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1559 | Elo | 1476 |
| #61 of 240 | Rank | #85 of 240 |
| +1.3 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −1.1 |
| +6.9 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +4.8 |
| 1432 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1324 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| NDSU | AFA | |
|---|---|---|
| −1.8 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −3.2 |
| 0.296 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.286 |
| -0.404 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.409 |
| 48% / 28% | Success rate (off / def) | 47% / 50% |
| 1.14 / 1.03 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.22 / 1.37 |
| 516 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 272 |
| — | Returning production | 57% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NDSU +4.6 pts
- Home field
- AFA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -1.4 pts on the total
- Model margin
- NDSU by 1.5
- Model total
- 44.1 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- NDSU -200 · AFA +128
- Best price
- NDSU -182 polymarketus · AFA +147 polymarketus
| Book | AFA spread | Total | NDSU ML | AFA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | -218 | +109 |
| polymarketus | — | — | -182 | +147 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.