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Prairie View A&M Panthers
0-1 last yr · #166 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium · 97° · 21 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Baylor Bears
0-1 · #75 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline PV +3124 · BAY -45882 books · best PV +3233 polymarketus · BAY -3900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
BAY -4588
70%
model margin BAY by 9.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 55.9
The read
On rating alone Baylor Bears are 6.2 points better (#75 vs #166 of 240), and BAY add 3.1 for home field.
Who has the edge
Model: BAY by 9.2
Rating
Clear edge
BAY
BAY rated 6.2 points better on Elo (#75 vs #166).
Home & rest
Clear edge
BAY
BAY gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
BAY
BAY −1.0 per game over the last five, PV −21.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: BAY by 9.2
Prairie View A&M PanthersBaylor Bears
1398 Elo · #166
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
BAY +6.2 pts
1509 Elo · #75
road
Home field
BAY +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−7.2 pts vs BAY D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
BAY +16.4 pts
+9.2 pts vs PV D
L · −21.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
BAY +10.0 pts
L · −1.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| PV | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 17.0 | Points for / game | 16.0 |
| 38.0 | Points against / game | 17.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| PV | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1398 | Elo | 1509 |
| #166 of 240 | Rank | #75 of 240 |
| −4.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +4.2 |
| −5.0 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.1 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1555 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- BAY +6.2 pts
- Home field
- BAY +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -3.2 pts on the total
- Model margin
- BAY by 9.2
- Model total
- 55.9 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- PV +3124 · BAY -4588
- Best price
- PV +3233 polymarketus · BAY -3900 polymarketus
| Book | BAY spread | Total | PV ML | BAY ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +3015 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | — | +3233 | -3900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.