The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
95%Baylor BearsStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAY by 28.9market BAY by 37.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.1 pointsmarket 55.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baylor Bears at 95% to win, with the market at BAY by 37.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: BAY has the better last five games by 61.6 points a game (BAY +20.6, PV -41.0).
Home field is with BAY, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAY by 28.9 against a market BAY by 37.5: 8.6 points of daylight in PV's favour. The model's total is 59.1 against a line of 55.5: 3.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAY by 28.9 · market BAY by 37.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
BAY
Clear advantage
BAY +20.6 per game over the last five, PV −41.0.
Market
BAY
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAY by 37.5; the model says BAY by 28.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BAY by 37.5 · model BAY by 28.9
Mkt BAY 37.5
Model BAY 28.9
← PV by 28tieBAY by 28 →
7.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 59.1
Mkt 55.5
Model 59.1
24 pts6096 pts
9.4% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 59.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
BAY -38.5
→
Market maker now
BAY -37.25
no move
→
Retail now
BAY -37.5
in line
5 moves7 books2 led
Total
No sharp side yet
Opened
54.5
→
Market maker now
55.3
no move
→
Retail now
55.5
in line
3 moves7 books1 led
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
