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Navy Midshipmen
1-0 · #38 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium · 90° · 47% precip · Partly sunny
Florida Atlantic Owls
0-1 · #206 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline NAVY -837 · FAU +2012 books · best NAVY -525 kalshi · FAU +208 kalshi
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
NAVY -837
77%
model margin NAVY by 12.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 64.5
The read
On rating alone Navy Midshipmen are 16.0 points better (#38 vs #206 of 240), and FAU add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: NAVY rushing ranks #6, FAU defends it at #132; the other way FAU #107 into NAVY's #75.
Who has the edge
Model: NAVY by 12.9
Rating
Clear edge
NAVY
NAVY rated 16.0 points better on Elo (#206 vs #38).
Home & rest
Clear edge
FAU
FAU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
NAVY passing ranks #9, FAU defends it at #95; the other way FAU #42 into NAVY's #118.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
NAVY
NAVY rushing ranks #6, FAU defends it at #132; the other way FAU #107 into NAVY's #75.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
NAVY
NAVY third-down conversion ranks #4, FAU defends it at #125; the other way FAU #96 into NAVY's #66.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
NAVY
FAU −45.0 per game over the last five, NAVY +27.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: NAVY by 12.9
Navy MidshipmenFlorida Atlantic Owls
1636 Elo · #38
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NAVY +16.0 pts
1349 Elo · #206
road
Home field
FAU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
+13.9 pts vs FAU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
NAVY +20.3 pts
−6.4 pts vs NAVY D
W · +27.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
NAVY +36.0 pts
L · −45.0
+6.2
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
NAVY +14.9 pts
−8.7
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸NAVY rushing ppa / play (#6) against a FAU defense ranked #132 at stopping it
- ▸NAVY rush success rate (#4) against a FAU defense ranked #126 at stopping it
- ▸NAVY third-down conversion (#4) against a FAU defense ranked #125 at stopping it
- ▸NAVY stuff rate (#1) against a FAU defense ranked #121 at stopping it
- ▸NAVY power success (#13) against a FAU defense ranked #132 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Navy Midshipmen offense vs Florida Atlantic Owls defense
ranks of 135| NAVY off | FAU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 23% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 77% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 62 | · |
| Possession / game | 32:37 | 31:27 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.46#9 | +0.31#95 | NAVY |
| Pass success rate | 42%#58 | 42%#76 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 2.01#3 | 1.57#79 | NAVY |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.3#6 | 7.6#103 | NAVY |
| Completion % | 58%#107 | 64%#104 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#115 | 5.4%#2 | FAU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.28#6 | +0.25#132 | NAVY |
| Rush success rate | 52%#4 | 49%#126 | NAVY |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.06#32 | 1.09#121 | NAVY |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.45#5 | 3.07#102 | NAVY |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 11%#1 | 15%#121 | NAVY |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 81%#13 | 86%#132 | NAVY |
| Yards / rush | 5.8#3 | 4.8#105 | NAVY |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.23#15 | +0.22#125 | NAVY |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.52#8 | +0.38#107 | NAVY |
| Third-down conversion | 52%#4 | 45%#125 | NAVY |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.22#28 | 4.58#131 | NAVY |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 9.2%#3 | 13.9%#105 | NAVY |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.08#43 | 0.67#131 | NAVY |
Florida Atlantic Owls offense vs Navy Midshipmen defense
ranks of 135| FAU off | NAVY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 62% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:33 | 27:23 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.33#42 | +0.37#118 | FAU |
| Pass success rate | 43%#55 | 44%#102 | FAU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.59#49 | 1.63#103 | FAU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.0#76 | 8.0#115 | FAU |
| Completion % | 66%#27 | 64%#101 | FAU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 0.5%#1 | 1.6%#113 | FAU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.04#107 | +0.11#75 | NAVY |
| Rush success rate | 40%#96 | 39%#26 | NAVY |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.04#40 | 1.06#113 | FAU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.76#103 | 2.85#59 | NAVY |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#51 | 18%#80 | FAU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 77%#31 | 76%#102 | FAU |
| Yards / rush | 3.6#119 | 4.1#59 | NAVY |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.11#67 | +0.17#111 | FAU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.39#33 | +0.30#71 | FAU |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#96 | 39%#66 | NAVY |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.49#92 | 4.20#115 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.8%#111 | 12.5%#123 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 2.42#135 | 1.15#87 | NAVY |
Season
| NAVY | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-1 |
| 42.0 | Points for / game | 21.0 |
| 15.0 | Points against / game | 66.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | L |
Power ratings
| NAVY | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1636 | Elo | 1349 |
| #38 of 240 | Rank | #206 of 240 |
| +4.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +0.8 |
| +7.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | −9.1 |
| 1421 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1559 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| NAVY | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.2 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | −6.1 |
| 0.298 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.206 |
| 0.210 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.263 |
| 49% / 41% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 45% |
| 1.24 / 1.34 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.39 / 1.30 |
| 196 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 593 |
| 14% | Returning production | 68% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | FAU 32 at NAVY 42 | NAVY · FAU covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NAVY +16.0 pts
- Home field
- FAU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- NAVY by 12.9
- Model total
- 64.5 vs —
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- NAVY -837 · FAU +201
- Best price
- NAVY -525 kalshi · FAU +208 kalshi
| Book | FAU spread | Total | NAVY ML | FAU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | -525 | +208 |
| polymarketus | — | — | -1150 | +194 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.