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Iowa State Cyclones
1-0 · #31 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium · 84° · Mostly sunny
Iowa Hawkeyes
1-0 · #12 Elo
Spread IOWA -12.5Total 41.5Moneyline ISU +450 · IOWA -6303 books · best ISU +455 draftkings · IOWA -625 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
IOWA -630
73%
model margin IOWA by 10.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
ISU +12.5
51%
2.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 41.5
51%
model total 44.1
The read
On rating alone Iowa Hawkeyes are 7.3 points better (#12 vs #31 of 240), and IOWA add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: IOWA third-down conversion ranks #34, ISU defends it at #63; the other way ISU #69 into IOWA's #23. The model lands on IOWA by 10.3 against a market IOWA by 12.5, so the spread lean is ISU by 2.2 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 44.1 against 41.5.
Who has the edge
Model: IOWA by 10.3 · market IOWA by 12.5
Rating
Clear edge
IOWA
IOWA rated 7.3 points better on Elo (#12 vs #31).
Home & rest
Clear edge
IOWA
IOWA gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Even
—
IOWA passing ranks #70, ISU defends it at #68; the other way ISU #52 into IOWA's #30.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
ISU rushing ranks #48, IOWA defends it at #53; the other way IOWA #34 into ISU's #17.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
IOWA
IOWA third-down conversion ranks #34, ISU defends it at #63; the other way ISU #69 into IOWA's #23.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
IOWA
IOWA +40.0 per game over the last five, ISU +28.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
IOWA
Consensus has IOWA by 12.5; the model says IOWA by 10.3.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: IOWA by 10.3 · market IOWA by 12.5
Iowa State CyclonesIowa Hawkeyes
1664 Elo · #31
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
IOWA +7.3 pts
1795 Elo · #12
road
Home field
IOWA +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−11.8 pts vs IOWA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
IOWA +10.7 pts
−1.1 pts vs ISU D
W · +28.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
IOWA +6.0 pts
W · +40.0
+9.9
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
IOWA +9.8 pts
+19.7
ISU +12.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
IOWA +12.5 pts
IOWA -12.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸ISU defense (#10 rush explosiveness allowed) against a IOWA offense ranked #98
- ▸ISU defense (#47 passing-down ppa allowed) against a IOWA offense ranked #109
- ▸IOWA defense (#24 completion % allowed) against a ISU offense ranked #83
- ▸IOWA defense (#41 passing-down ppa allowed) against a ISU offense ranked #99
- ▸ISU defense (#51 yards / pass attempt allowed) against a IOWA offense ranked #105
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Iowa State Cyclones offense vs Iowa Hawkeyes defense
ranks of 135| ISU off | IOWA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 45% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 53 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:35 | 28:32 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.29#52 | +0.16#30 | · |
| Pass success rate | 44%#43 | 37%#25 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.57#54 | 1.38#8 | IOWA |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.7#45 | 6.0#14 | IOWA |
| Completion % | 61%#83 | 58%#24 | IOWA |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.2%#88 | 2.2%#86 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.15#48 | +0.08#53 | · |
| Rush success rate | 46%#45 | 41%#54 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.93#82 | 0.89#32 | IOWA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.00#58 | 2.92#74 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#56 | 19%#71 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 69%#90 | 69%#51 | IOWA |
| Yards / rush | 4.4#69 | 3.6#27 | IOWA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.18#33 | +0.02#24 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.21#99 | +0.22#41 | IOWA |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#69 | 34%#23 | IOWA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.54#85 | 3.34#38 | IOWA |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 14.5%#55 | 16.9%#44 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.17#59 | 1.08#95 | ISU |
Iowa Hawkeyes offense vs Iowa State Cyclones defense
ranks of 135| IOWA off | ISU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 38% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 73% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 55 | 62 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:28 | 28:25 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.24#70 | +0.24#68 | · |
| Pass success rate | 39%#95 | 40%#53 | ISU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.55#68 | 1.56#73 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.5#105 | 6.8#51 | ISU |
| Completion % | 63%#58 | 61%#62 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#117 | 2.3%#73 | ISU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.19#34 | +0.01#17 | · |
| Rush success rate | 48%#16 | 40%#43 | IOWA |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.90#98 | 0.83#10 | ISU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.29#15 | 2.79#49 | IOWA |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 14%#15 | 21%#36 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 81%#10 | 70%#55 | IOWA |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#55 | 4.5#88 | IOWA |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.16#45 | +0.02#28 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.20#109 | +0.23#47 | ISU |
| Third-down conversion | 43%#34 | 39%#63 | IOWA |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.44#20 | 3.06#21 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.2%#7 | 16.7%#46 | IOWA |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#35 | 1.50#39 | · |
Season
| ISU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 38.0 | Points for / game | 40.0 |
| 10.0 | Points against / game | 0.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| ISU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1664 | Elo | 1795 |
| #31 of 240 | Rank | #12 of 240 |
| +3.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +7.6 |
| +8.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +15.1 |
| 1421 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1262 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| ISU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| −0.4 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +14.6 |
| 0.186 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.170 |
| 0.092 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.080 |
| 45% / 39% | Success rate (off / def) | 44% / 39% |
| 1.21 / 1.22 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.12 / 1.13 |
| 670 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 723 |
| 2% | Returning production | 34% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | IOWA 13 at ISU 16 | ISU · ISU covered |
| 2024 | ISU 20 at IOWA 19 | ISU · ISU covered |
| 2023 | IOWA 20 at ISU 13 | IOWA · IOWA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- IOWA +7.3 pts
- Home field
- IOWA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- IOWA by 10.3
- Model total
- 44.1 vs 41.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- IOWA -12.5
- Total
- 41.5
- Moneyline
- ISU +450 · IOWA -630
- Best price
- ISU +455 draftkings · IOWA -625 draftkings
| Book | IOWA spread | Total | ISU ML | IOWA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -12.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-112/-108) | +455 | -625 |
| fanduel | — | — | +450 | -630 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +450 | -650 |
Spreadopened IOWA -12.5 · now IOWA -12.5
Totalopened 42 · now 41.5 ▼ 0.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.