Probetrics — Sports Analytics

Iowa State Cyclones

2026: 1-0 · Elo 1664 · #31 of 240 · 38.0 for, 10.0 against · ATS 0-1

Next: at IOWA · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

16641500 = average

Model on this team

Winner calls
1/1
Against the spread
1-0
SP+ (2026)
-0.4
SP+ (2025)
+9.9
Talent composite
670
Returning production
2%

How they play

Pass rate
45%
Standard-down share
70%
Plays / game
66
Possession / game
31:35

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Standard-down PPA
#33 · +0.18
Pass success rate
#43 · 44%
Yards / pass attempt
#45 · 7.7
Rush success rate
#45 · 46%
Passing-down PPA
#99 · +0.21
Power success
#90 · 69%
Interception rate
#88 · 3.2%
Points / scoring opportunity
#85 · 3.54

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Rush explosiveness
#10 · 0.83
Rushing PPA / play
#17 · +0.01
Points / scoring opportunity
#21 · 3.06
Standard-down PPA
#28 · +0.02
Yards / rush
#88 · 4.5
Interceptions forced
#73 · 2.3%
Pass explosiveness
#73 · 1.56
Passing PPA / play
#68 · +0.24
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1vsSoutheast Missouri State RedhawksW 38–10-29.5ISU 78%win
Sep 12W2at#22 Iowa Hawkeyes+12.5IOWA 73%
Sep 19W3vsBowling Green Falcons
Sep 26W4vs#21 Utah Utes
Oct 3W5vsWest Virginia Mountaineers
Oct 9W6at#14 BYU Cougars
Oct 24W8atArizona Wildcats
Oct 31W9vsOklahoma State Cowboys
Nov 7W10atBaylor Bears
Nov 14W11vsCincinnati Bearcats
Nov 20W12atUCF Knights
Nov 28W13vsKansas State Wildcats

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.