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Ohio State Buckeyes
1-0 · #2 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 97° · 18 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Texas Longhorns
1-0 · #13 Elo
Spread TEX -1.5Total 47.5Moneyline OSU -102 · TEX -1183 books · best OSU +100 hardrockbet · TEX -115 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
OSU -102
62%
model margin OSU by 5.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
OSU +1.5
52%
6.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Over 47.5
51%
model total 49.5
The read
On rating alone Ohio State Buckeyes are 8.4 points better (#2 vs #13 of 240), and TEX add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: OSU third-down conversion ranks #3, TEX defends it at #18; the other way TEX #75 into OSU's #10. The model lands on OSU by 5.3 against a market TEX by 1.5, so the spread lean is OSU by 6.8 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%.
Who has the edge
Model: OSU by 5.3 · market TEX by 1.5
Rating
Clear edge
OSU
OSU rated 8.4 points better on Elo (#13 vs #2).
Home & rest
Clear edge
TEX
TEX gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
OSU
OSU passing ranks #3, TEX defends it at #53; the other way TEX #50 into OSU's #5.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
OSU rushing ranks #88, TEX defends it at #19; the other way TEX #83 into OSU's #4.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
OSU
OSU third-down conversion ranks #3, TEX defends it at #18; the other way TEX #75 into OSU's #10.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Even
—
TEX +52.0 per game over the last five, OSU +53.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
TEX
Consensus has TEX by 1.5; the model says OSU by 5.3.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: OSU by 5.3 · market TEX by 1.5
Ohio State BuckeyesTexas Longhorns
1938 Elo · #2
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
OSU +8.4 pts
1787 Elo · #13
road
Home field
TEX +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−1.0 pts vs TEX D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
OSU +3.5 pts
−4.4 pts vs OSU D
W · +53.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
OSU +0.5 pts
W · +52.0
+30.1
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
OSU +13.9 pts
+16.2
OSU +1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
TEX +1.5 pts
TEX -1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸TEX defense (#12 rush explosiveness allowed) against a OSU offense ranked #132
- ▸OSU defense (#14 stuff rate forced) against a TEX offense ranked #119
- ▸OSU defense (#10 power success allowed) against a TEX offense ranked #115
- ▸OSU defense (#6 standard-down ppa allowed) against a TEX offense ranked #102
- ▸TEX turnovers / game (#6) against a OSU defense ranked #99 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Ohio State Buckeyes offense vs Texas Longhorns defense
ranks of 135| OSU off | TEX def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 55% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 76% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 55 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 33:00 | 31:30 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.54#3 | +0.20#53 | OSU |
| Pass success rate | 58%#1 | 39%#42 | OSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.42#116 | 1.48#39 | TEX |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.2#7 | 6.6#39 | OSU |
| Completion % | 77%#1 | 63%#78 | OSU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.0%#47 | 1.5%#120 | OSU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.08#88 | +0.01#19 | TEX |
| Rush success rate | 45%#47 | 40%#46 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.78#132 | 0.84#12 | TEX |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.99#60 | 2.69#30 | TEX |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#72 | 21%#33 | TEX |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 73%#65 | 57%#5 | TEX |
| Yards / rush | 4.6#53 | 3.1#12 | TEX |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.25#7 | +0.05#40 | OSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.50#12 | +0.22#38 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 53%#3 | 33%#18 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.83#5 | 3.77#76 | OSU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 11.2%#6 | 17.9%#24 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.79#8 | 1.77#18 | · |
Texas Longhorns offense vs Ohio State Buckeyes defense
ranks of 135| TEX off | OSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 64% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 45 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:30 | 26:60 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.29#50 | +0.05#5 | OSU |
| Pass success rate | 39%#99 | 38%#32 | OSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.75#11 | 1.25#1 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.8#40 | 5.3#2 | OSU |
| Completion % | 61%#77 | 61%#55 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#112 | 2.3%#72 | OSU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.08#83 | −0.09#4 | OSU |
| Rush success rate | 42%#82 | 31%#3 | OSU |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.94#79 | 0.82#7 | OSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.83#86 | 2.50#10 | OSU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 22%#119 | 23%#14 | OSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 63%#115 | 59%#10 | OSU |
| Yards / rush | 4.2#82 | 2.9#7 | OSU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.05#102 | −0.08#6 | OSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.43#26 | +0.08#5 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#75 | 31%#10 | OSU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.52#88 | 2.64#8 | OSU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.9%#77 | 16.3%#56 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.69#6 | 1.00#99 | TEX |
Season
| OSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 56.0 | Points for / game | 59.0 |
| 3.0 | Points against / game | 7.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| OSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1938 | Elo | 1787 |
| #2 of 240 | Rank | #13 of 240 |
| +11.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +13.2 |
| +17.6 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +12.2 |
| 1181 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1546 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| OSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +32.7 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +22.8 |
| 0.312 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.179 |
| -0.023 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.104 |
| 52% / 34% | Success rate (off / def) | 40% / 39% |
| 1.16 / 1.07 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.37 / 1.18 |
| 964 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 985 |
| 68% | Returning production | 72% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | TEX 7 at OSU 14 | OSU · OSU covered |
| 2024 | OSU 28 vs TEX 14 | OSU · OSU covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- OSU +8.4 pts
- Home field
- TEX +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -2.1 pts on the total
- Model margin
- OSU by 5.3
- Model total
- 49.5 vs 47.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- TEX -1.5
- Total
- 47.5
- Moneyline
- OSU -102 · TEX -118
- Best price
- OSU +100 hardrockbet · TEX -115 fanduel
| Book | TEX spread | Total | OSU ML | TEX ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -1.5 (-108) | 47.5 (-110/-110) | -102 | -118 |
| fanduel | -1.5 (-106) | 47.5 (-115/-105) | -104 | -115 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +100 | -120 |
Spreadopened TEX -1.5 · now TEX -1.5
Totalopened 47.5 · now 47.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.