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San Diego State Aztecs
1-0 · #64 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM ET
Rose Bowl · 92° · 13 mph wind · Sunny
UCLA Bruins
1-0 · #106 Elo
Spread UCLA -10Total 48.5Moneyline SDSU +303 · UCLA -3902 books · best SDSU +320 fanduel · UCLA -360 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Lean
SDSU +303
55%
model margin SDSU by 2.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
SDSU +10
54%
12.2 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 48.5
50%
model total 47.3
The read
On rating alone San Diego State Aztecs are 5.3 points better (#64 vs #106 of 240), and UCLA add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the third down & red zone: SDSU third-down conversion ranks #129, UCLA defends it at #135; the other way UCLA #92 into SDSU's #14. The model lands on SDSU by 2.2 against a market UCLA by 10, so the spread lean is SDSU by 12.2 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%.
Who has the edge
Model: SDSU by 2.2 · market UCLA by 10
Rating
Clear edge
SDSU
SDSU rated 5.3 points better on Elo (#106 vs #64).
Home & rest
Clear edge
UCLA
UCLA gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
SDSU
SDSU passing ranks #126, UCLA defends it at #104; the other way UCLA #125 into SDSU's #2.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
SDSU
SDSU rushing ranks #43, UCLA defends it at #130; the other way UCLA #20 into SDSU's #43.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
SDSU
SDSU third-down conversion ranks #129, UCLA defends it at #135; the other way UCLA #92 into SDSU's #14.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
SDSU
UCLA +21.0 per game over the last five, SDSU +33.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
UCLA
Consensus has UCLA by 10; the model says SDSU by 2.2.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: SDSU by 2.2 · market UCLA by 10
San Diego State AztecsUCLA Bruins
1550 Elo · #64
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
SDSU +5.3 pts
1455 Elo · #106
road
Home field
UCLA +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−1.9 pts vs UCLA D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
SDSU +5.7 pts
−7.6 pts vs SDSU D
W · +33.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
SDSU +6.0 pts
W · +21.0
SDSU +10
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
UCLA +10.0 pts
UCLA -10
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸SDSU defense (#1 yards / pass attempt allowed) against a UCLA offense ranked #126
- ▸SDSU defense (#2 passing ppa / play allowed) against a UCLA offense ranked #125
- ▸SDSU defense (#3 points / scoring opportunity allowed) against a UCLA offense ranked #123
- ▸SDSU defense (#16 pass explosiveness allowed) against a UCLA offense ranked #135
- ▸SDSU line yards / rush (#10) against a UCLA defense ranked #127 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
San Diego State Aztecs offense vs UCLA Bruins defense
ranks of 135| SDSU off | UCLA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 37% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 74% | · |
| Plays / game | 59 | 58 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:17 | 30:49 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.09#126 | +0.33#104 | · |
| Pass success rate | 36%#120 | 48%#126 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.71#20 | 1.41#15 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.1#74 | 7.2#72 | · |
| Completion % | 57%#116 | 66%#116 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 5.2%#131 | 2.1%#87 | UCLA |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.17#43 | +0.23#130 | SDSU |
| Rush success rate | 46%#40 | 53%#134 | SDSU |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.90#94 | 0.89#29 | UCLA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.34#10 | 3.32#127 | SDSU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 14%#14 | 14%#128 | SDSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 80%#16 | 79%#115 | SDSU |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#37 | 5.2#128 | SDSU |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.16#40 | +0.19#116 | SDSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.04#131 | +0.45#129 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 31%#129 | 55%#135 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.51#90 | 4.61#132 | SDSU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.9%#27 | 12.0%#129 | SDSU |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.15#53 | 0.83#118 | SDSU |
UCLA Bruins offense vs San Diego State Aztecs defense
ranks of 135| UCLA off | SDSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 51% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 65% | · |
| Plays / game | 55 | 61 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:11 | 29:43 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.09#125 | −0.04#2 | SDSU |
| Pass success rate | 40%#93 | 33%#4 | SDSU |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.29#135 | 1.43#16 | SDSU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.0#126 | 5.1#1 | SDSU |
| Completion % | 63%#55 | 53%#5 | SDSU |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.1%#11 | 2.4%#66 | UCLA |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.21#20 | +0.06#43 | · |
| Rush success rate | 45%#54 | 38%#25 | SDSU |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.05#33 | 0.96#69 | UCLA |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.06#47 | 3.04#98 | UCLA |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#77 | 16%#108 | UCLA |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 65%#108 | 63%#15 | SDSU |
| Yards / rush | 4.5#63 | 3.8#44 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.05#101 | −0.05#8 | SDSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.28#79 | +0.06#3 | SDSU |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#92 | 33%#14 | SDSU |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.98#123 | 2.42#3 | SDSU |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.9%#78 | 15.2%#78 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.08#46 | 1.38#54 | · |
Season
| SDSU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 53.0 | Points for / game | 45.0 |
| 20.0 | Points against / game | 24.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 0-0 / 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| SDSU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1550 | Elo | 1455 |
| #64 of 240 | Rank | #106 of 240 |
| +0.4 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | −0.9 |
| +6.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +2.3 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| SDSU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| — | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | — |
| 0.129 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.125 |
| -0.013 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.253 |
| 42% / 35% | Success rate (off / def) | 42% / 50% |
| 1.18 / 1.18 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.17 / 1.12 |
| — | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | — |
| — | Returning production | — |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2023 | UCLA 35 at SDSU 10 | UCLA · UCLA covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- SDSU +5.3 pts
- Home field
- UCLA +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -0.2 pts on the total
- Model margin
- SDSU by 2.2
- Model total
- 47.3 vs 48.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- UCLA -10
- Total
- 48.5
- Moneyline
- SDSU +303 · UCLA -390
- Best price
- SDSU +320 fanduel · UCLA -360 draftkings
| Book | UCLA spread | Total | SDSU ML | UCLA ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | +285 | -360 |
| fanduel | — | — | +320 | -420 |
Spreadopened UCLA -10 · now UCLA -10
Totalopened 48.5 · now 48.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.