The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
56%UCLA BruinsLean✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UCLA by 2.6market UCLA by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.7 pointsmarket 53.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UCLA Bruins at 56% to win, with the market at UCLA by 13.5.
UCLA has the advantage in rushing: UCLA rushing ranks #1, SDSU defends it at #56; the other way SDSU #111 into UCLA's #27.
UCLA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UCLA third-down conversion ranks #24, SDSU defends it at #93; the other way SDSU #128 into UCLA's #22.
Form: UCLA has the better last five games by 30.2 points a game (UCLA +26.0, SDSU -4.2).
Home field is with UCLA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UCLA by 2.6 against a market UCLA by 13.5: 10.9 points of daylight in SDSU's favour. The model's total is 49.7 against a line of 53.5: 3.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UCLA by 2.6 · market UCLA by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UCLA
Clear advantage
UCLA passing ranks #109, SDSU defends it at #95; the other way SDSU #133 into UCLA's #20.
Rushing game
UCLA
Clear advantage
UCLA rushing ranks #1, SDSU defends it at #56; the other way SDSU #111 into UCLA's #27.
Third down & red zone
UCLA
Clear advantage
UCLA third-down conversion ranks #24, SDSU defends it at #93; the other way SDSU #128 into UCLA's #22.
Big plays
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU pass explosiveness ranks #29, UCLA defends it at #130; the other way UCLA #72 into SDSU's #94.
Pass protection & rush
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU sack rate ranks #74, UCLA defends it at #102; the other way UCLA #85 into SDSU's #82.
Ball security
UCLA
Clear advantage
UCLA turnovers / game ranks #57, SDSU defends it at #58; the other way SDSU #106 into UCLA's #2.
Form (last 5)
UCLA
Clear advantage
UCLA +26.0 per game over the last five, SDSU −4.2.
Market
UCLA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UCLA by 13.5; the model says UCLA by 2.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UCLA by 13.5 · model UCLA by 2.6
Mkt UCLA 13.5
Model UCLA 2.6
← SDSU by 28tieUCLA by 28 →
21.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 49.7
Mkt 53.5
Model 49.7
24 pts6096 pts
8.9% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 49.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
