Probetrics — Sports Analytics

San Diego State Aztecs

2026: 1-0 · Elo 1550 · #64 of 240 · 53.0 for, 20.0 against · ATS 0-1

Next: at UCLA · Sep 12

Rating trajectory The model's Elo after each week, this season in blue and last season in grey. 1500 is league average; every 22 (NFL) or 18 (college) points is about one point of spread.

15501500 = average

Model on this team

Winner calls
1/1
Against the spread
1-0
Avg CLV
2.00 pts

How they play

Pass rate
37%
Standard-down share
70%
Plays / game
59
Possession / game
30:17

Offense · best and worst (of 135)

Line yards / rush
#10 · 3.34
Stuff rate
#14 · 14%
Power success
#16 · 80%
Pass explosiveness
#20 · 1.71
Passing-down PPA
#131 · +0.04
Interception rate
#131 · 5.2%
Third-down conversion
#129 · 31%
Passing PPA / play
#126 · +0.09

Defense · best and worst (of 135)

Yards / pass attempt
#1 · 5.1
Passing PPA / play
#2 · −0.04
Passing-down PPA
#3 · +0.06
Points / scoring opportunity
#3 · 2.42
Stuff rate forced
#108 · 16%
Line yards / rush
#98 · 3.04
Havoc rate
#78 · 15.2%
Rush explosiveness
#69 · 0.96
2026 schedule
DateOpponentResultLineModelATSCLV
Sep 5W1vsPortland State VikingsW 53–20-38.5SDSU 76%win+2.0
Sep 12W2atUCLA Bruins+10SDSU 55%
Sep 19W3vsJames Madison Dukes
Sep 26W4atToledo Rockets
Oct 3W5vsTexas State Bobcats
Oct 10W6atOregon State Beavers
Oct 17W7vsFresno State Bulldogs
Oct 24W8atColorado State Rams
Oct 31W9vsWashington State Cougars
Nov 14W11vsUtah State Aggies
Nov 21W12atBoise State Broncos

Line is this team's spread. Model, ATS and CLV are shown only for picks locked before kickoff; 1 played.