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Bowling Green Falcons
0-1 · #225 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 91° · 12 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Nebraska Cornhuskers
1-0 · #41 Elo
Spread NEB -10.5 (opened NEB -25.5)Total 45.5Moneyline BGSU +1650 · NEB -45002 books · best BGSU +1700 draftkings · NEB -4500 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
NEB -4500
89%
model margin NEB by 21.3
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
NEB -10.5
54%
10.8 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 45.5
51%
model total 49.3
The read
On rating alone Nebraska Cornhuskers are 18.2 points better (#41 vs #225 of 240), and NEB add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: NEB passing ranks #81, BGSU defends it at #82; the other way BGSU #128 into NEB's #44. The model lands on NEB by 21.3 against a market NEB by 10.5, so the spread lean is NEB by 10.8 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 49.3 against 45.5.
Who has the edge
Model: NEB by 21.3 · market NEB by 10.5
Rating
Clear edge
NEB
NEB rated 18.2 points better on Elo (#41 vs #225).
Home & rest
Clear edge
NEB
NEB gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Clear edge
NEB
NEB passing ranks #81, BGSU defends it at #82; the other way BGSU #128 into NEB's #44.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
BGSU
BGSU rushing ranks #111, NEB defends it at #131; the other way NEB #63 into BGSU's #48.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
NEB third-down conversion ranks #27, BGSU defends it at #24; the other way BGSU #98 into NEB's #67.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
NEB
NEB +28.0 per game over the last five, BGSU −7.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
NEB
Consensus has NEB by 10.5; the model says NEB by 21.3.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: NEB by 21.3 · market NEB by 10.5
Bowling Green FalconsNebraska Cornhuskers
1285 Elo · #225
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
NEB +18.2 pts
1613 Elo · #41
road
Home field
NEB +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−12.5 pts vs NEB D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
NEB +17.3 pts
+4.8 pts vs BGSU D
L · −7.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
NEB +17.5 pts
W · +28.0
−12.6
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
NEB +18.8 pts
+6.2
BGSU +10.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
NEB +10.5 pts
NEB -10.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸NEB defense (#26 yards / pass attempt allowed) against a BGSU offense ranked #116
- ▸NEB defense (#38 pass success rate allowed) against a BGSU offense ranked #123
- ▸NEB defense (#44 passing ppa / play allowed) against a BGSU offense ranked #128
- ▸NEB defense (#26 completion % allowed) against a BGSU offense ranked #109
- ▸NEB defense (#72 standard-down ppa allowed) against a BGSU offense ranked #130
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Bowling Green Falcons offense vs Nebraska Cornhuskers defense
ranks of 135| BGSU off | NEB def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 40% | 43% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 55 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:19 | 29:25 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.07#128 | +0.19#44 | NEB |
| Pass success rate | 35%#123 | 39%#38 | NEB |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.59#47 | 1.46#25 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.3#116 | 6.4#26 | NEB |
| Completion % | 58%#109 | 58%#26 | NEB |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.1%#55 | 2.2%#83 | BGSU |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.03#111 | +0.25#131 | · |
| Rush success rate | 37%#124 | 47%#116 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.95#76 | 1.12#127 | BGSU |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.88#77 | 3.25#120 | BGSU |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#65 | 16%#116 | BGSU |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 58%#133 | 79%#118 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.0#96 | 4.9#115 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | −0.06#130 | +0.10#72 | NEB |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.19#112 | +0.44#126 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 37%#98 | 39%#67 | NEB |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.19#117 | 4.37#127 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.0%#80 | 14.4%#102 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.17#57 | 1.00#104 | BGSU |
Nebraska Cornhuskers offense vs Bowling Green Falcons defense
ranks of 135| NEB off | BGSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 49% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 75% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 56 | 58 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:35 | 28:41 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.22#81 | +0.28#82 | · |
| Pass success rate | 45%#36 | 42%#68 | NEB |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.39#127 | 1.60#94 | BGSU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.7#43 | 7.5#97 | NEB |
| Completion % | 69%#11 | 59%#29 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.6%#26 | 3.7%#17 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.13#63 | +0.06#48 | · |
| Rush success rate | 48%#22 | 39%#40 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.81#125 | 1.06#115 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.16#30 | 2.74#40 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 15%#19 | 25%#8 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 76%#44 | 59%#9 | BGSU |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#72 | 4.2#63 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.08#87 | +0.07#59 | BGSU |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.39#35 | +0.32#79 | NEB |
| Third-down conversion | 46%#27 | 34%#24 | · |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.93#49 | 3.44#48 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.8%#24 | 19.0%#12 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.85#13 | 1.33#59 | NEB |
Season
| BGSU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 13.0 | Points for / game | 49.0 |
| 20.0 | Points against / game | 21.0 |
| 0-1 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| BGSU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1285 | Elo | 1613 |
| #225 of 240 | Rank | #41 of 240 |
| −8.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +6.8 |
| +1.9 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +4.4 |
| 1468 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1478 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| BGSU | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| −15.0 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +9.3 |
| 0.025 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.160 |
| 0.153 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.207 |
| 36% / 41% | Success rate (off / def) | 46% / 43% |
| 1.23 / 1.31 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.09 / 1.27 |
| 568 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 787 |
| -6% | Returning production | 46% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- NEB +18.2 pts
- Home field
- NEB +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- NEB by 21.3
- Model total
- 49.3 vs 45.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- NEB -10.5 · opened NEB -25.5
- Total
- 45.5 · opened 48.5
- Moneyline
- BGSU +1650 · NEB -4500
- Best price
- BGSU +1700 draftkings · NEB -4500 draftkings
| Book | NEB spread | Total | BGSU ML | NEB ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | +1700 | -4500 |
| fanduel | — | — | +1600 | -4500 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.