← College Football slate
Southern Jaguars
0-1 last yr · #101 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium · 93° · 14 mph wind · Mostly sunny
Houston Cougars
1-0 · #40 Elo
Spread —Total 53.5Moneyline SOU +3124 · HOU -45882 books · best SOU +3233 polymarketus · HOU -3900 polymarketus
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
HOU -4588
76%
model margin HOU by 11.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 53.5
52%
model total 57.9
The read
On rating alone Houston Cougars are 8.9 points better (#40 vs #101 of 240), and HOU add 3.1 for home field. On the total the model sees 57.9 against 53.5.
Who has the edge
Model: HOU by 11.9
Rating
Clear edge
HOU
HOU rated 8.9 points better on Elo (#40 vs #101).
Home & rest
Clear edge
HOU
HOU gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
HOU
HOU +13.0 per game over the last five, SOU −49.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: HOU by 11.9
Southern JaguarsHouston Cougars
1460 Elo · #101
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
HOU +8.9 pts
1620 Elo · #40
road
Home field
HOU +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−5.9 pts vs HOU D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
HOU +13.3 pts
+7.5 pts vs SOU D
L · −49.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
HOU +31.0 pts
W · +13.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| SOU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 7.0 | Points for / game | 33.0 |
| 56.0 | Points against / game | 20.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | W |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| SOU | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1460 | Elo | 1620 |
| #101 of 240 | Rank | #40 of 240 |
| −2.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +4.3 |
| −3.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +3.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1271 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- HOU +8.9 pts
- Home field
- HOU +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- -0.8 pts on the total
- Model margin
- HOU by 11.9
- Model total
- 57.9 vs 53.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- 53.5
- Moneyline
- SOU +3124 · HOU -4588
- Best price
- SOU +3233 polymarketus · HOU -3900 polymarketus
| Book | HOU spread | Total | SOU ML | HOU ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +3015 | -5276 |
| polymarketus | — | 53.5 (+104/-108) | +3233 | -3900 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.