The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
98%Houston CougarsStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 35.4market HOU by 51.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.6 pointsmarket 61.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Cougars at 98% to win, with the market at HOU by 51.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 92.2 points a game (HOU +21.2, SOU -71.0).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 35.4 against a market HOU by 51.5: 16.1 points of daylight in SOU's favour. The model's total is 58.6 against a line of 61.5: 2.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 35.4 · market HOU by 51.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU +21.2 per game over the last five, SOU −71.0.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 51.5; the model says HOU by 35.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket HOU by 51.5 · model HOU by 35.4
Mkt HOU 51.5
Model HOU 35.4
← SOU by 28tieHOU by 28 →
8.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 61.5 · model 58.6
Mkt 61.5
Model 58.6
24 pts6096 pts
6.0% of FBS games finish between 61.5 and 58.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
