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Delaware Blue Hens
1-0 · #157 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 4:15 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium · 89° · Sunny
Vanderbilt Commodores
1-0 · #11 Elo
Spread VAN -21.5Total 55.5Moneyline DEL +990 · VAN -19002 books · best DEL +1000 draftkings · VAN -1800 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
VAN -1900
93%
model margin VAN by 24.9
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
VAN -21.5
51%
3.4 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 55.5
52%
model total 61.9
The read
On rating alone Vanderbilt Commodores are 22.2 points better (#11 vs #157 of 240), and VAN add 3.1 for home field; DEL carry a rest edge worth 0.3. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: VAN rushing ranks #1, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #98 into VAN's #32. The model lands on VAN by 24.9 against a market VAN by 21.5, so the spread lean is VAN by 3.4 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 61.9 against 55.5.
Who has the edge
Model: VAN by 24.9 · market VAN by 21.5
Rating
Clear edge
VAN
VAN rated 22.2 points better on Elo (#11 vs #157).
Home & rest
Clear edge
VAN
VAN gets 3.1 points for home field and DEL 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
Slight edge
VAN
VAN passing ranks #1, DEL defends it at #86; the other way DEL #61 into VAN's #114.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
VAN
VAN rushing ranks #1, DEL defends it at #118; the other way DEL #98 into VAN's #32.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
VAN
VAN third-down conversion ranks #6, DEL defends it at #76; the other way DEL #48 into VAN's #111.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
DEL
VAN +19.0 per game over the last five, DEL +35.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
VAN
Consensus has VAN by 21.5; the model says VAN by 24.9.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: VAN by 24.9 · market VAN by 21.5
Delaware Blue HensVanderbilt Commodores
1408 Elo · #157
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
VAN +22.2 pts
1807 Elo · #11
road
Home field
VAN +3.1 pts
home
9d
Rest
DEL +0.3 pts
7d
−6.6 pts vs VAN D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
VAN +18.2 pts
+11.5 pts vs DEL D
W · +35.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
DEL +8.0 pts
W · +19.0
−10.9
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
VAN +31.2 pts
+20.3
DEL +21.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
VAN +21.5 pts
VAN -21.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸VAN rush explosiveness (#2) against a DEL defense ranked #134 at stopping it
- ▸VAN rushing ppa / play (#1) against a DEL defense ranked #118 at stopping it
- ▸VAN passing-down ppa (#1) against a DEL defense ranked #116 at stopping it
- ▸VAN pass success rate (#3) against a DEL defense ranked #115 at stopping it
- ▸VAN points / scoring opportunity (#3) against a DEL defense ranked #108 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Delaware Blue Hens offense vs Vanderbilt Commodores defense
ranks of 135| DEL off | VAN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 58% | 54% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 68% | 66% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 56 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:18 | 28:42 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.27#61 | +0.35#114 | DEL |
| Pass success rate | 44%#46 | 43%#91 | DEL |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.43#112 | 1.56#75 | VAN |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.0#78 | 7.1#66 | · |
| Completion % | 62%#66 | 67%#123 | DEL |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.6%#71 | 1.7%#105 | DEL |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.05#98 | +0.04#32 | VAN |
| Rush success rate | 43%#73 | 40%#47 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.94#80 | 0.93#53 | VAN |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.92#69 | 2.66#24 | VAN |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#91 | 22%#31 | VAN |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 69%#91 | 72%#74 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.8#103 | 3.7#30 | VAN |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.15#48 | +0.11#78 | DEL |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.26#87 | +0.38#108 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 42%#48 | 43%#111 | DEL |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.52#89 | 3.90#90 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.4%#68 | 17.1%#39 | VAN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.46#95 | 1.15#89 | · |
Vanderbilt Commodores offense vs Delaware Blue Hens defense
ranks of 135| VAN off | DEL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 52% | 51% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 74% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 57 | 63 | · |
| Possession / game | 31:18 | 29:42 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.55#1 | +0.29#86 | VAN |
| Pass success rate | 54%#3 | 45%#115 | VAN |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.54#74 | 1.55#61 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 9.3#4 | 7.5#89 | VAN |
| Completion % | 70%#7 | 62%#71 | VAN |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.0%#48 | 1.9%#99 | VAN |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.35#1 | +0.19#118 | VAN |
| Rush success rate | 50%#8 | 39%#38 | VAN |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.21#2 | 1.27#134 | VAN |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.37#9 | 2.87#65 | VAN |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 16%#25 | 21%#35 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 76%#38 | 68%#47 | · |
| Yards / rush | 5.7#7 | 4.6#93 | VAN |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.32#2 | +0.13#93 | VAN |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.78#1 | +0.41#116 | VAN |
| Third-down conversion | 51%#6 | 40%#76 | VAN |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.00#3 | 4.04#108 | VAN |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 12.9%#28 | 15.8%#65 | VAN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.92#19 | 1.46#43 | · |
Season
| DEL | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 42.0 | Points for / game | 28.0 |
| 7.0 | Points against / game | 9.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 0-1 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| DEL | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1408 | Elo | 1807 |
| #157 of 240 | Rank | #11 of 240 |
| +2.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +11.3 |
| −0.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +8.8 |
| 1318 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1477 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| DEL | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| −12.9 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +9.8 |
| 0.187 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.440 |
| 0.221 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.203 |
| 44% / 42% | Success rate (off / def) | 52% / 42% |
| 1.25 / 1.42 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.39 / 1.31 |
| 483 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 727 |
| 85% | Returning production | 35% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- VAN +22.2 pts
- Home field
- VAN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- DEL +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- VAN by 24.9
- Model total
- 61.9 vs 55.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- VAN -21.5
- Total
- 55.5
- Moneyline
- DEL +990 · VAN -1900
- Best price
- DEL +1000 draftkings · VAN -1800 draftkings
| Book | VAN spread | Total | DEL ML | VAN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -21.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-112/-108) | +1000 | -1800 |
| fanduel | — | — | +980 | -2000 |
Spreadopened VAN -21.5 · now VAN -21.5
Totalopened 55.5 · now 55.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.