The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
94%Vanderbilt CommodoresStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
VAN by 27.2market VAN by 20.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
61.9 pointsmarket 54.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Vanderbilt Commodores at 94% to win, with the market at VAN by 20.5.
VAN has the advantage in rushing: VAN rushing ranks #62, DEL defends it at #86; the other way DEL #119 into VAN's #45.
VAN has the advantage in passing: VAN passing ranks #75, DEL defends it at #103; the other way DEL #68 into VAN's #68.
Rest: DEL has 2 more days since its last game (VAN 7d, DEL 9d).
Home field is with VAN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it VAN by 27.2 against a market VAN by 20.5: 6.7 points of daylight in VAN's favour. The model's total is 61.9 against a line of 54.5: 7.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model VAN by 27.2 · market VAN by 20.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN passing ranks #75, DEL defends it at #103; the other way DEL #68 into VAN's #68.
Rushing game
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN rushing ranks #62, DEL defends it at #86; the other way DEL #119 into VAN's #45.
Third down & red zone
DEL
Slight advantage
DEL points / scoring opportunity ranks #95, VAN defends it at #79; the other way VAN #115 into DEL's #27.
Big plays
=
Even
VAN rush explosiveness ranks #37, DEL defends it at #66; the other way DEL #128 into VAN's #54.
Pass protection & rush
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN sack rate ranks #75, DEL defends it at #22; the other way DEL #103 into VAN's #24.
Ball security
=
Even
VAN turnovers / game ranks #71, DEL defends it at #76; the other way DEL #91 into VAN's #80.
Form (last 5)
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN +0.4 per game over the last five, DEL −4.2.
Market
VAN
Clear advantage
Consensus has VAN by 20.5; the model says VAN by 27.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket VAN by 20.5 · model VAN by 27.2
Mkt VAN 20.5
Model VAN 27.2
← DEL by 28tieVAN by 28 →
8.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 61.9
Mkt 54.5
Model 61.9
24 pts6096 pts
15.9% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 61.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
No sharp side yet
Opened
VAN -21.5
→
Market maker now
VAN -21
no move
→
Retail now
VAN -21
in line
8 moves9 books1 led
Total
Sharp side: the overModel agrees
Opened
55.5
→
Market maker now
54.8
▲ 1 since open
→
Retail now
54.8
in line
16 moves10 books1 led
Mon, Sep 7, 4:20 AM first sharp move: 53.5 → 54.5
No books followed within six hours
Retail was still 53.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
