← College Football slate
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
0-1 last yr · #190 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Glass Bowl · 79° · 12 mph wind · Sunny
Toledo Rockets
0-1 · #67 Elo
Spread —Total —Moneyline CCSU +755 · TOL -2581
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
TOL -2581
76%
model margin TOL by 12.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.—
No line
—
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.—
No line
—
model total 54.6
The read
On rating alone Toledo Rockets are 9.1 points better (#67 vs #190 of 240), and TOL add 3.1 for home field; TOL carry a rest edge worth 0.2.
Who has the edge
Model: TOL by 12.4
Rating
Clear edge
TOL
TOL rated 9.1 points better on Elo (#67 vs #190).
Home & rest
Clear edge
TOL
TOL gets 3.1 points for home field and TOL 0.2 for rest.
Passing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
not priced
—
Ranks unavailable.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
TOL
TOL −10.0 per game over the last five, CCSU −46.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
not priced
—
No line yet.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: TOL by 12.4
Central Connecticut Blue DevilsToledo Rockets
1370 Elo · #190
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
TOL +9.1 pts
1534 Elo · #67
road
Home field
TOL +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
TOL +0.2 pts
8d
−11.6 pts vs TOL D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
TOL +20.8 pts
+9.2 pts vs CCSU D
L · −46.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
TOL +18.0 pts
L · −10.0
—
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
not priced
—
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Season
| CCSU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 0-1 |
| 13.0 | Points for / game | 20.0 |
| 59.0 | Points against / game | 30.0 |
| 0-0 / 0-1 | Home / road | 0-0 / 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 0-0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| L | Last 5 | L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| CCSU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1370 | Elo | 1534 |
| #190 of 240 | Rank | #67 of 240 |
| −3.9 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +1.5 |
| −7.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +7.7 |
| — | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1444 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- TOL +9.1 pts
- Home field
- TOL +3.1 pts
- Rest
- TOL +0.2 pts
- Weather / roof
- -0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- TOL by 12.4
- Model total
- 54.6 vs —
Market · 1 books
- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Moneyline
- CCSU +755 · TOL -2581
- Best price
- CCSU +755 kalshi · TOL -2581 kalshi
| Book | TOL spread | Total | CCSU ML | TOL ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | — | — | +755 | -2581 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.