The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
locked before kickoff
Win chance
96%Toledo RocketsStrong✓
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TOL by 30.4market TOL by 36.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.1 pointsmarket 52.5
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Toledo Rockets at 96% to win, with the market at TOL by 36.5.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: TOL has the better last five games by 69.8 points a game (TOL +16.8, CCSU -53.0).
Home field is with TOL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TOL by 30.4 against a market TOL by 36.5: 6.1 points of daylight in CCSU's favour. The model's total is 54.1 against a line of 52.5: 1.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TOL by 30.4 · market TOL by 36.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Rushing game
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Third down & red zone
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Big plays
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Pass protection & rush
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Ball security
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not priced
Ranks unavailable.
Form (last 5)
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL +16.8 per game over the last five, CCSU −53.0.
Market
TOL
Clear advantage
Consensus has TOL by 36.5; the model says TOL by 30.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TOL by 36.5 · model TOL by 30.4
Mkt TOL 36.5
Model TOL 30.4
← CCSU by 28tieTOL by 28 →
6.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 54.1
Mkt 52.5
Model 54.1
24 pts6096 pts
3.4% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 54.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
Sharp read
tap to open+
Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.
Spread
Sharp side: TOLModel disagrees
Opened
TOL -35.5
→
Market maker now
TOL -36.5
▲ 0.3 since open
→
Retail now
TOL -35.5
1 behind
7 moves7 books3 led
Sat, Sep 12, 1:20 PM first sharp move: TOL -36 → TOL -36.5
1 book followed within six hours
Retail was still TOL -35.5 at that point
Total
Sharp side: the underModel disagrees
Opened
56.5
→
Market maker now
53.5
▼ 1.5 since open
→
Retail now
52.5
1 behind
11 moves7 books3 ledSteam Sat, Sep 12, 1:20 PM
Fri, Sep 11, 4:02 PM first sharp move: 55.5 → 55
1 book followed within six hours
Retail was still 55.5 at that point
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
