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Duke Blue Devils
1-0 · #32 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Gies Memorial Stadium · 81° · 12 mph wind · Sunny
Illinois Fighting Illini
1-0 · #26 Elo
Spread ILL -7.5 (opened ILL -8.5)Total 54Moneyline DUKE +258 · ILL -3252 books · best DUKE +270 draftkings · ILL -310 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
ILL -325
62%
model margin ILL by 5.2
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
DUKE +7.5
51%
2.3 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 54
51%
model total 57.5
The read
On rating alone Illinois Fighting Illini are 1.8 points better (#26 vs #32 of 240), and ILL add 3.1 for home field; ILL carry a rest edge worth 0.3. The clearest mismatch is the passing game: ILL passing ranks #21, DUKE defends it at #124; the other way DUKE #24 into ILL's #101. The model lands on ILL by 5.2 against a market ILL by 7.5, so the spread lean is DUKE by 2.3 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 57.5 against 54.
Who has the edge
Model: ILL by 5.2 · market ILL by 7.5
Rating
Slight edge
ILL
ILL rated 1.8 points better on Elo (#26 vs #32).
Home & rest
Clear edge
ILL
ILL gets 3.1 points for home field and ILL 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
Slight edge
ILL
ILL passing ranks #21, DUKE defends it at #124; the other way DUKE #24 into ILL's #101.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Even
—
ILL rushing ranks #86, DUKE defends it at #67; the other way DUKE #84 into ILL's #50.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
ILL third-down conversion ranks #43, DUKE defends it at #124; the other way DUKE #78 into ILL's #122.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
ILL
ILL +19.0 per game over the last five, DUKE +14.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
ILL
Consensus has ILL by 7.5; the model says ILL by 5.2.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: ILL by 5.2 · market ILL by 7.5
Duke Blue DevilsIllinois Fighting Illini
1658 Elo · #32
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
ILL +1.8 pts
1691 Elo · #26
road
Home field
ILL +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
ILL +0.3 pts
9d
+1.0 pts vs ILL D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
DUKE +1.6 pts
−0.5 pts vs DUKE D
W · +14.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
ILL +2.5 pts
W · +19.0
+6.6
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
ILL +6.3 pts
+12.9
DUKE +7.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
ILL +7.5 pts
ILL -7.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸DUKE pass success rate (#20) against a ILL defense ranked #132 at stopping it
- ▸ILL completion % (#17) against a DUKE defense ranked #126 at stopping it
- ▸ILL pass success rate (#14) against a DUKE defense ranked #119 at stopping it
- ▸ILL passing ppa / play (#21) against a DUKE defense ranked #124 at stopping it
- ▸ILL interception rate (#27) against a DUKE defense ranked #129 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Duke Blue Devils offense vs Illinois Fighting Illini defense
ranks of 135| DUKE off | ILL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 55% | 54% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 70% | 72% | · |
| Plays / game | 66 | 59 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:44 | 29:05 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.39#24 | +0.32#101 | DUKE |
| Pass success rate | 47%#20 | 49%#132 | DUKE |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.59#44 | 1.35#5 | ILL |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.9#39 | 6.6#45 | · |
| Completion % | 66%#25 | 64%#93 | DUKE |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.8%#75 | 1.4%#124 | DUKE |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.08#84 | +0.07#50 | ILL |
| Rush success rate | 45%#51 | 41%#53 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.97#65 | 0.92#50 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.80#98 | 2.88#68 | ILL |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 22%#114 | 19%#70 | ILL |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 69%#85 | 75%#97 | · |
| Yards / rush | 4.3#80 | 4.0#51 | ILL |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.18#30 | +0.12#87 | DUKE |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.40#30 | +0.39#112 | DUKE |
| Third-down conversion | 39%#78 | 45%#122 | DUKE |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.32#26 | 4.33#124 | DUKE |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.4%#67 | 15.3%#76 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.00#28 | 1.23#76 | DUKE |
Illinois Fighting Illini offense vs Duke Blue Devils defense
ranks of 135| ILL off | DUKE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 48% | 50% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 71% | 68% | · |
| Plays / game | 58 | 67 | · |
| Possession / game | 30:55 | 30:16 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.41#21 | +0.41#124 | ILL |
| Pass success rate | 48%#14 | 46%#119 | ILL |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.57#55 | 1.65#106 | ILL |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.2#26 | 8.4#124 | ILL |
| Completion % | 67%#17 | 67%#126 | ILL |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 1.6%#27 | 1.3%#129 | ILL |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.08#86 | +0.10#67 | · |
| Rush success rate | 48%#15 | 43%#73 | ILL |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.80#131 | 1.03#100 | DUKE |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.04#52 | 2.62#20 | DUKE |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#80 | 23%#11 | DUKE |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 73%#57 | 73%#84 | ILL |
| Yards / rush | 3.9#98 | 4.3#70 | DUKE |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.14#52 | +0.14#94 | ILL |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.37#43 | +0.44#127 | ILL |
| Third-down conversion | 42%#43 | 45%#124 | ILL |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.21#29 | 4.39#128 | ILL |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.5%#70 | 17.2%#36 | DUKE |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.85#11 | 1.71#22 | · |
Season
| DUKE | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 17.0 | Points for / game | 42.0 |
| 3.0 | Points against / game | 23.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| DUKE | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1658 | Elo | 1691 |
| #32 of 240 | Rank | #26 of 240 |
| +8.2 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +4.6 |
| +5.2 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +7.2 |
| 1615 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1396 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| DUKE | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.6 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +10.4 |
| 0.248 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.210 |
| 0.234 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.198 |
| 46% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 48% / 45% |
| 1.33 / 1.35 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.17 / 1.19 |
| 668 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 704 |
| 17% | Returning production | 21% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
| 2025 | ILL 45 at DUKE 19 | ILL · ILL covered |
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- ILL +1.8 pts
- Home field
- ILL +3.1 pts
- Rest
- ILL +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- ILL by 5.2
- Model total
- 57.5 vs 54
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- ILL -7.5 · opened ILL -8.5
- Total
- 54 · opened 56.5
- Moneyline
- DUKE +258 · ILL -325
- Best price
- DUKE +270 draftkings · ILL -310 fanduel
| Book | ILL spread | Total | DUKE ML | ILL ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -7.5 (-112) | 54.5 (-115/-105) | +270 | -340 |
| fanduel | -7.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-115/-105) | +245 | -310 |
Spreadopened ILL -7.5 · now ILL -7.5
Totalopened 53.5 · now 53.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.