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UCF Knights
1-0 · #73 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium · 79° · Mostly sunny
Pittsburgh Panthers
1-0 · #34 Elo
Spread PITT -8.5Total 51.5Moneyline UCF +225 · PITT -2802 books · best UCF +230 draftkings · PITT -275 fanduel
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
PITT -280
72%
model margin PITT by 10.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
PITT -8.5
51%
1.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 51.5
53%
model total 60.2
The read
On rating alone Pittsburgh Panthers are 7.4 points better (#34 vs #73 of 240), and PITT add 3.1 for home field; UCF carry a rest edge worth 0.3. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: PITT rushing ranks #96, UCF defends it at #83; the other way UCF #68 into PITT's #7. The model lands on PITT by 10.1 against a market PITT by 8.5, so the spread lean is PITT by 1.6 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 60.2 against 51.5.
Who has the edge
Model: PITT by 10.1 · market PITT by 8.5
Rating
Clear edge
PITT
PITT rated 7.4 points better on Elo (#34 vs #73).
Home & rest
Clear edge
PITT
PITT gets 3.1 points for home field and UCF 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
Slight edge
PITT
PITT passing ranks #40, UCF defends it at #28; the other way UCF #103 into PITT's #54.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
PITT
PITT rushing ranks #96, UCF defends it at #83; the other way UCF #68 into PITT's #7.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Even
—
PITT third-down conversion ranks #120, UCF defends it at #47; the other way UCF #117 into PITT's #15.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
UCF
PITT +45.0 per game over the last five, UCF +67.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
PITT
Consensus has PITT by 8.5; the model says PITT by 10.1.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: PITT by 10.1 · market PITT by 8.5
UCF KnightsPittsburgh Panthers
1518 Elo · #73
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
PITT +7.4 pts
1651 Elo · #34
road
Home field
PITT +3.1 pts
home
9d
Rest
UCF +0.3 pts
7d
−1.0 pts vs PITT D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
PITT +5.1 pts
+4.2 pts vs UCF D
W · +67.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
UCF +11.0 pts
W · +45.0
−1.2
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
PITT +9.6 pts
+8.4
UCF +8.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
PITT +8.5 pts
PITT -8.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸PITT defense (#7 stuff rate forced) against a UCF offense ranked #127
- ▸PITT defense (#6 line yards / rush allowed) against a UCF offense ranked #124
- ▸PITT defense (#7 rush success rate allowed) against a UCF offense ranked #109
- ▸PITT defense (#15 third-down conversion allowed) against a UCF offense ranked #117
- ▸PITT defense (#20 passing-down ppa allowed) against a UCF offense ranked #115
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
UCF Knights offense vs Pittsburgh Panthers defense
ranks of 135| UCF off | PITT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 53% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 63% | · |
| Plays / game | 60 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:55 | 31:04 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.18#103 | +0.21#54 | PITT |
| Pass success rate | 40%#91 | 37%#23 | PITT |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.47#101 | 1.65#109 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.6#100 | 7.1#68 | PITT |
| Completion % | 62%#68 | 63%#81 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.2%#61 | 3.5%#27 | PITT |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.11#68 | −0.06#7 | PITT |
| Rush success rate | 39%#109 | 34%#7 | PITT |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.25#1 | 0.96#68 | UCF |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.61#124 | 2.34#6 | PITT |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 24%#127 | 25%#7 | PITT |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 62%#122 | 69%#53 | PITT |
| Yards / rush | 4.9#30 | 2.7#3 | PITT |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.12#63 | +0.02#25 | PITT |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.19#115 | +0.17#20 | PITT |
| Third-down conversion | 34%#117 | 33%#15 | PITT |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.49#93 | 3.81#83 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 17.3%#105 | 18.9%#14 | PITT |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.50#98 | 1.62#33 | PITT |
Pittsburgh Panthers offense vs UCF Knights defense
ranks of 135| PITT off | UCF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 55% | 45% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 69% | · |
| Plays / game | 61 | 60 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:56 | 30:06 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.34#40 | +0.16#28 | · |
| Pass success rate | 41%#74 | 40%#54 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.66#29 | 1.43#19 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 7.7#48 | 6.6#43 | · |
| Completion % | 62%#67 | 63%#84 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.2%#92 | 3.6%#22 | UCF |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.06#96 | +0.12#83 | · |
| Rush success rate | 41%#95 | 47%#115 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.01#51 | 0.88#27 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.63#121 | 3.06#100 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 24%#128 | 16%#111 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 67%#97 | 85%#131 | PITT |
| Yards / rush | 3.6#121 | 4.0#52 | UCF |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.11#66 | +0.12#88 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.35#53 | +0.11#7 | UCF |
| Third-down conversion | 33%#120 | 37%#47 | UCF |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.65#73 | 3.52#55 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 18.4%#119 | 16.4%#55 | UCF |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.77#124 | 1.17#84 | UCF |
Season
| UCF | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 73.0 | Points for / game | 59.0 |
| 6.0 | Points against / game | 14.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| UCF | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1518 | Elo | 1651 |
| #73 of 240 | Rank | #34 of 240 |
| +5.5 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +9.8 |
| +5.6 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +6.5 |
| 1344 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1454 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| UCF | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.7 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +6.2 |
| 0.139 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.189 |
| 0.120 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.076 |
| 39% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 41% / 35% |
| 1.38 / 1.12 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.39 / 1.35 |
| 672 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 675 |
| 25% | Returning production | 40% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- PITT +7.4 pts
- Home field
- PITT +3.1 pts
- Rest
- UCF +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- PITT by 10.1
- Model total
- 60.2 vs 51.5
Market · 2 books
- Spread
- PITT -8.5
- Total
- 51.5
- Moneyline
- UCF +225 · PITT -280
- Best price
- UCF +230 draftkings · PITT -275 fanduel
| Book | PITT spread | Total | UCF ML | PITT ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | — | — | +230 | -285 |
| fanduel | — | — | +220 | -275 |
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.