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Mississippi State Bulldogs
1-0 · #63 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium · 75° · Showers
Minnesota Golden Gophers
1-0 · #54 Elo
Spread MSST -1.5 (opened MINN -2.5)Total 55.5Moneyline MSST -102 · MINN -1183 books · best MSST +110 hardrockbet · MINN +105 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Solid
MINN -118
62%
model margin MINN by 5.1
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean +
MINN +1.5
52%
6.6 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean +
Over 55.5
53%
model total 63.8
The read
On rating alone Minnesota Golden Gophers are 1.7 points better (#54 vs #63 of 240), and MINN add 3.1 for home field; MINN carry a rest edge worth 0.3. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: MSST rushing ranks #71, MINN defends it at #94; the other way MINN #118 into MSST's #96. The model lands on MINN by 5.1 against a market MSST by 1.5, so the spread lean is MINN by 6.6 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 63.8 against 55.5.
Who has the edge
Model: MINN by 5.1 · market MSST by 1.5
Rating
Slight edge
MINN
MINN rated 1.7 points better on Elo (#54 vs #63).
Home & rest
Clear edge
MINN
MINN gets 3.1 points for home field and MINN 0.3 for rest.
Passing game
Slight edge
MINN
MINN passing ranks #90, MSST defends it at #91; the other way MSST #92 into MINN's #52.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Slight edge
MSST
MSST rushing ranks #71, MINN defends it at #94; the other way MINN #118 into MSST's #96.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Slight edge
MSST
MSST third-down conversion ranks #38, MINN defends it at #85; the other way MINN #66 into MSST's #96.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Slight edge
MINN
MINN +52.0 per game over the last five, MSST +49.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Slight edge
MSST
Consensus has MSST by 1.5; the model says MINN by 5.1.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: MINN by 5.1 · market MSST by 1.5
Mississippi State BulldogsMinnesota Golden Gophers
1552 Elo · #63
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
MINN +1.7 pts
1582 Elo · #54
road
Home field
MINN +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
MINN +0.3 pts
9d
+2.0 pts vs MINN D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
MINN +2.8 pts
+4.8 pts vs MSST D
W · +49.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
MINN +1.5 pts
W · +52.0
+4.1
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
MSST +2.6 pts
+1.5
MSST -1.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
MSST +1.5 pts
MINN +1.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸MINN defense (#29 havoc rate) against a MSST offense ranked #117
- ▸MSST defense (#30 rush explosiveness allowed) against a MINN offense ranked #101
- ▸MINN defense (#41 yards / rush allowed) against a MSST offense ranked #107
- ▸MSST completion % (#65) against a MINN defense ranked #125 at stopping it
- ▸MSST yards / pass attempt (#33) against a MINN defense ranked #86 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Mississippi State Bulldogs offense vs Minnesota Golden Gophers defense
ranks of 135| MSST off | MINN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 46% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 66% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 67 | 56 | · |
| Possession / game | 28:41 | 30:08 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.21#92 | +0.20#52 | MINN |
| Pass success rate | 39%#101 | 44%#109 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.71#18 | 1.46#28 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.0#33 | 7.4#86 | MSST |
| Completion % | 62%#65 | 67%#125 | MSST |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.3%#97 | 1.9%#97 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.11#71 | +0.15#94 | · |
| Rush success rate | 44%#62 | 43%#80 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.96#68 | 0.99#83 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.81#94 | 2.91#72 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 19%#83 | 19%#61 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 72%#72 | 73%#83 | · |
| Yards / rush | 3.7#107 | 3.8#41 | MINN |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.05#103 | +0.08#64 | MINN |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.30#70 | +0.38#110 | MSST |
| Third-down conversion | 43%#38 | 40%#85 | MSST |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.41#22 | 3.70#72 | MSST |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 18.2%#117 | 17.6%#29 | MINN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.15#52 | 1.23#77 | · |
Minnesota Golden Gophers offense vs Mississippi State Bulldogs defense
ranks of 135| MINN off | MSST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 57% | 46% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 70% | · |
| Plays / game | 53 | 65 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:23 | 30:56 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.21#90 | +0.30#91 | · |
| Pass success rate | 41%#76 | 40%#56 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.39#126 | 1.73#123 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 6.2#123 | 7.3#81 | MSST |
| Completion % | 63%#59 | 60%#49 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 2.3%#62 | 2.3%#78 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.01#118 | +0.16#96 | · |
| Rush success rate | 38%#118 | 48%#123 | · |
| Rush explosiveness | 0.89#101 | 0.89#30 | MSST |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.60#125 | 3.41#134 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 21%#106 | 14%#125 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 73%#56 | 77%#107 | MINN |
| Yards / rush | 3.6#115 | 4.9#118 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.08#89 | +0.15#101 | · |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.19#114 | +0.38#109 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 40%#66 | 41%#96 | MINN |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.60#79 | 3.68#69 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 15.8%#74 | 13.5%#110 | MINN |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.69#5 | 1.38#53 | MINN |
Season
| MSST | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-0 |
| 62.0 | Points for / game | 59.0 |
| 13.0 | Points against / game | 7.0 |
| 1-0 / 0-0 | Home / road | 1-0 / 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 1-0 |
| W | Last 5 | W |
Power ratings
| MSST | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1552 | Elo | 1582 |
| #63 of 240 | Rank | #54 of 240 |
| +10.1 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +5.6 |
| +0.8 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +8.1 |
| 1196 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | 1424 |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| MSST | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.8 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +6.2 |
| 0.138 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.116 |
| 0.221 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.172 |
| 42% / 44% | Success rate (off / def) | 39% / 44% |
| 1.29 / 1.27 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.20 / 1.26 |
| 805 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 729 |
| 34% | Returning production | 65% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- MINN +1.7 pts
- Home field
- MINN +3.1 pts
- Rest
- MINN +0.3 pts
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- MINN by 5.1
- Model total
- 63.8 vs 55.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- MSST -1.5 · opened MINN -2.5
- Total
- 55.5 · opened 53.5
- Moneyline
- MSST -102 · MINN -118
- Best price
- MSST +110 hardrockbet · MINN +105 draftkings
| Book | MINN spread | Total | MSST ML | MINN ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | +1.5 (-112) | 55.5 (-115/-105) | -125 | +105 |
| fanduel | — | — | -102 | -118 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +110 | -130 |
Spreadopened MINN -2 · now MINN -2.5 ▲ 0.5
Totalopened 53.5 · now 53.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.