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Utah State Aggies
0-1 · #172 Elo
at
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Husky Stadium · 60° · Sunny
Washington Huskies
9-4 last yr · #18 Elo
Spread WASH -24.5Total 56.5Moneyline USU +1200 · WASH -25003 books · best USU +1400 fanduel · WASH -2400 draftkings
WinnerProbability the picked team wins, from a normal on the model's predicted margin. Backtested and calibrated: when it says 65%, it has been right about 63–65% of the time.Strong
WASH -2500
91%
model margin WASH by 23.4
SpreadWhich side the model's margin lands on versus the spread. A lean, not a proven edge: against closing NFL lines the model covers about 49% in backtest, so this is tracked in public rather than sold.Lean
USU +24.5
50%
1.1 pts from the number
TotalModel total (scoring ratings + weather + roof) versus the posted total. Same caveat as the spread: a lean, tracked in public.Lean
Under 56.5
51%
model total 54.4
The read
On rating alone Washington Huskies are 20.3 points better (#18 vs #172 of 240), and WASH add 3.1 for home field. The clearest mismatch is the rushing game: WASH rushing ranks #10, USU defends it at #123; the other way USU #31 into WASH's #9. The model lands on WASH by 23.4 against a market WASH by 24.5, so the spread lean is USU by 1.1 points — a lean, not an edge: against closing lines this model covers about 49%. On the total the model sees 54.4 against 56.5.
Who has the edge
Model: WASH by 23.4 · market WASH by 24.5
Rating
Clear edge
WASH
WASH rated 20.3 points better on Elo (#18 vs #172).
Home & rest
Clear edge
WASH
WASH gets 3.1 points for home field.
Passing game
Slight edge
WASH
WASH passing ranks #29, USU defends it at #64; the other way USU #69 into WASH's #50.
context · not in the margin
Rushing game
Clear edge
WASH
WASH rushing ranks #10, USU defends it at #123; the other way USU #31 into WASH's #9.
context · not in the margin
Third down & red zone
Clear edge
WASH
WASH third-down conversion ranks #9, USU defends it at #83; the other way USU #112 into WASH's #56.
context · not in the margin
Form (last 5)
Clear edge
WASH
WASH +16.6 per game over the last five, USU −12.0.
context · not in the margin
Market
Clear edge
WASH
Consensus has WASH by 24.5; the model says WASH by 23.4.
context · not in the margin
The margin, factor by factor
Model: WASH by 23.4 · market WASH by 24.5
Utah State AggiesWashington Huskies
1392 Elo · #172
RatingThe Elo gap in points — the model's core read on who is better, before the situational pieces below.
WASH +20.3 pts
1757 Elo · #18
road
Home field
WASH +3.1 pts
home
7d
Rest
even
7d
−10.4 pts vs WASH D
Offense vs defenseEach offense's scoring rating against the other defense's — what drives the model total. Shown as an edge, though the winner call runs on Elo.
WASH +18.1 pts
+7.7 pts vs USU D
L · −12.0
Form (last 5)Average margin over the last five games. Already inside the ratings — listed so you can see when recent form and the rating disagree.
WASH +14.3 pts
W L W W L · +16.6
−3.1
SP+ (last season)Bill Connelly's SP+ from last season, the prior the college model starts each season from.
WASH +21.5 pts
+18.4
USU +24.5
MarketThe consensus spread, read as points. Compare with the model margin above it.
WASH +24.5 pts
WASH -24.5
Bars are in points toward the favored side. Blue factors are inside the model's margin; grey ones are context it does not add on top (form and offense/defense are already in the ratings; injuries beyond the quarterback are not priced).
Dissect the matchup
CollegeFootballData, garbage time excluded · 2025 season (last season until three games are in)Biggest mismatches
- ▸WASH rushing ppa / play (#10) against a USU defense ranked #123 at stopping it
- ▸USU defense (#24 pass explosiveness allowed) against a WASH offense ranked #113
- ▸WASH rush success rate (#11) against a USU defense ranked #99 at stopping it
- ▸WASH line yards / rush (#27) against a USU defense ranked #115 at stopping it
- ▸WASH passing-down ppa (#18) against a USU defense ranked #106 at stopping it
A mismatch is a rank gap of at least a fifth of the league between an offense and the defense it faces on the same measure. Descriptive rows (pass rate, pace, direction) are shown for reading the game, not ranked. ▲▼ mark where the last three games sit clearly above or below the season number, in the direction that helps that side.
Utah State Aggies offense vs Washington Huskies defense
ranks of 135| USU off | WASH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 52% | 53% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 67% | 67% | · |
| Plays / game | 62 | 56 | · |
| Possession / game | 27:14 | 30:25 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.24#69 | +0.20#50 | · |
| Pass success rate | 41%#83 | 41%#63 | · |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.55#67 | 1.51#48 | · |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.0#37 | 6.1#18 | · |
| Completion % | 60%#89 | 60%#41 | WASH |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.2%#91 | 1.8%#102 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.19#31 | −0.03#9 | · |
| Rush success rate | 42%#88 | 38%#22 | WASH |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.16#9 | 0.77#2 | · |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 2.87#80 | 2.88#66 | · |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 20%#90 | 16%#113 | · |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 71%#75 | 67%#35 | WASH |
| Yards / rush | 4.8#38 | 3.3#15 | · |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.12#60 | −0.04#12 | WASH |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.36#47 | +0.31#73 | · |
| Third-down conversion | 35%#112 | 38%#56 | WASH |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.49#16 | 2.93#15 | · |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 16.1%#88 | 14.6%#96 | · |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 0.85#14 | 1.46#45 | USU |
Washington Huskies offense vs Utah State Aggies defense
ranks of 135| WASH off | USU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Identity | |||
| Pass rate / Pass rate faced | 48% | 52% | · |
| Standard-down shareShare of plays on standard downs (staying ahead of the chains). | 73% | 71% | · |
| Plays / game | 55 | 69 | · |
| Possession / game | 29:35 | 32:44 | · |
| Passing | |||
| Passing PPA / playPredicted points added per pass play (CFBD). | +0.38#29 | +0.24#64 | WASH |
| Pass success rate | 51%#5 | 42%#70 | WASH |
| Pass explosivenessPPA on successful pass plays — how big the wins are. | 1.43#113 | 1.46#24 | USU |
| Yards / pass attempt | 8.6#16 | 7.0#61 | WASH |
| Completion % | 69%#9 | 59%#31 | · |
| Interception rate / Interceptions forced | 3.8%#109 | 1.0%#133 | · |
| Rushing | |||
| Rushing PPA / play | +0.26#10 | +0.21#123 | WASH |
| Rush success rate | 49%#11 | 45%#99 | WASH |
| Rush explosiveness | 1.04#39 | 1.04#104 | WASH |
| Line yards / rushYards credited to the offensive line (first 4 yards weighted). Defense column: allowed. | 3.16#27 | 3.18#115 | WASH |
| Stuff rate / Stuff rate forcedRushes stopped at or behind the line. | 18%#52 | 16%#107 | WASH |
| Power successConversion rate on 3rd/4th and ≤2, or goal-to-go from the 2. | 77%#34 | 70%#61 | WASH |
| Yards / rush | 4.7#41 | 4.9#114 | WASH |
| Situational | |||
| Standard-down PPA | +0.22#21 | +0.16#107 | WASH |
| Passing-down PPAObvious passing situations (2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 5+). | +0.46#18 | +0.37#106 | WASH |
| Third-down conversion | 50%#9 | 40%#83 | WASH |
| Points / scoring opportunityPoints per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.58#15 | 3.77#77 | WASH |
| Havoc rate faced / Havoc rateTFLs, forced fumbles, interceptions and passes defensed per play. | 13.5%#42 | 13.5%#113 | WASH |
| Turnovers / game / Takeaways / game | 1.08#44 | 1.31#64 | · |
Season
| USU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 9-4 |
| 17.0 | Points for / game | 34.1 |
| 29.0 | Points against / game | 18.7 |
| 0-1 / 0-0 | Home / road | 6-2 / 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 7-6 |
| 0-1 | Over / underOvers–unders in this team's games. A tendency, not a lean. | 6-7 |
| L | Last 5 | W L W W L |
Season numbers are from 2025 until this season has games.
Power ratings
| USU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1392 | Elo | 1757 |
| #172 of 240 | Rank | #18 of 240 |
| +0.7 | Offense ratingPoints per game above league average scored, opponent-adjusted. | +8.5 |
| +0.7 | Defense ratingPoints per game below league average allowed, opponent-adjusted. Positive is good. | +11.1 |
| 1402 | Strength of scheduleMean Elo of opponents faced this season. | — |
Elo drives the winner call. Offense/defense ratings drive the total.
Advanced
| USU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| −7.9 | SP+ (this season)Bill Connelly's SP+ rating, points above average. | +15.8 |
| 0.200 | Offense PPA / playPredicted points added per play, garbage time excluded (CFBD). | 0.287 |
| 0.222 | Defense PPA / playPPA allowed per play — lower is better. | 0.077 |
| 41% / 43% | Success rate (off / def) | 49% / 39% |
| 1.35 / 1.25 | Explosiveness (off / def) | 1.23 / 1.18 |
| 544 | Talent composite247Sports team talent composite for the current roster. | 778 |
| 65% | Returning production | 54% |
Advanced stats are from 2025 until this season has about three games. Source: CollegeFootballData.
Head to head
No meetings in our history.
How the margin was built
- Rating gap
- WASH +20.3 pts
- Home field
- WASH +3.1 pts
- Rest
- Even
- Weather / roof
- 0.0 pts on the total
- Model margin
- WASH by 23.4
- Model total
- 54.4 vs 56.5
Market · 3 books
- Spread
- WASH -24.5
- Total
- 56.5
- Moneyline
- USU +1200 · WASH -2500
- Best price
- USU +1400 fanduel · WASH -2400 draftkings
| Book | WASH spread | Total | USU ML | WASH ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings | -24.5 (-112) | 56.5 (-115/-105) | +1200 | -2400 |
| fanduel | — | — | +1400 | -4000 |
| hardrockbet | — | — | +1100 | -2500 |
Spreadopened WASH -24.5 · now WASH -24.5
Totalopened 56.5 · now 56.5
Consensus of the books we track, hourly, since we first priced the game. The arrow on the spread is from the home side: ▲ means the home side is laying more.
Informational only. Winner probabilities are backtested and calibrated; spread and total calls are tracked leans. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.