Utah State vs Washington Prediction — College Football Week 2, Sep 12, 2026

Model pick: Washington (94%), locked Sep 12; Washington won 16–14 (graded a hit).

Utah State Aggies

1-4

Modelpredicted

13 – 40

Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET

Husky Stadium · 63°

Final

Washington Huskies

3-2

MarketSpread WASH -28.5 (opened WASH -24.5)Total 55.5Moneyline USU +2000 · WASH -65007 books

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The pick

locked before kickoff

Win chance

94%Washington HuskiesStrong✓

No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.

Model margin

WASH by 26.9market WASH by 28.5

Model total

52.4 pointsmarket 55.5

Why the model calls it

The model has Washington Huskies at 94% to win, with the market at WASH by 28.5.
WASH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #65, USU defends it at #74; the other way USU #133 into WASH's #30.
WASH has the advantage in passing: WASH passing ranks #72, USU defends it at #64; the other way USU #130 into WASH's #58.
Counterpoint: big plays favours USU. USU pass explosiveness ranks #25, WASH defends it at #85; the other way WASH #108 into USU's #15. The pick still lands on WASH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: WASH has the better last five games by 19.2 points a game (WASH +8.2, USU -11.0).
Home field is with WASH, which supports the pick.

ContextThe model makes it WASH by 26.9 against a market WASH by 28.5: 1.6 points of daylight in USU's favour. The model's total is 52.4 against a line of 55.5: 3.1 points below it. The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Model WASH by 26.9 · market WASH by 28.5

ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.

Passing game

WASH

Clear advantage

WASH passing ranks #72, USU defends it at #64; the other way USU #130 into WASH's #58.

Rushing game

WASH

Slight advantage

WASH rushing ranks #101, USU defends it at #62; the other way USU #106 into WASH's #17.

Third down & red zone

WASH

Clear advantage

WASH points / scoring opportunity ranks #65, USU defends it at #74; the other way USU #133 into WASH's #30.

Big plays

USU

Slight advantage

USU pass explosiveness ranks #25, WASH defends it at #85; the other way WASH #108 into USU's #15.

Pass protection & rush

WASH

Clear advantage

WASH sack rate ranks #115, USU defends it at #123; the other way USU #127 into WASH's #48.

Ball security

WASH

Clear advantage

WASH turnovers / game ranks #43, USU defends it at #95; the other way USU #135 into WASH's #21.

Form (last 5)

WASH

Clear advantage

WASH +8.2 per game over the last five, USU −11.0.

Market

WASH

Clear advantage

Consensus has WASH by 28.5; the model says WASH by 26.9.

the market, for comparison

Where the lines sit

3,154 FBS games since 2023

Marginmarket WASH by 28.5 · model WASH by 26.9

Mkt WASH 28.5

Model WASH 26.9

← USU by 28tieWASH by 28 →

3.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).

Totalmarket 55.5 · model 52.4

Mkt 55.5

Model 52.4

24 pts6096 pts

6.9% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 52.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.

Sharp read

tap to open

Where the market maker moved the line since open, and whether other books followed. Tracked, not a pick.

Spread

Sharp side: WASHModel disagrees

Opened

WASH -24.5

Market maker now

WASH -28

▲ 1.5 since open

Retail now

WASH -28

in line

18 moves9 books0 led

Thu, Sep 10, 7:20 PM first sharp move: WASH -26.5 → WASH -27
4 books followed within six hours
Retail was still WASH -26.5 at that point

Total

No sharp side yet

Opened

56.5

Market maker now

55.8

no move

Retail now

55.5

in line

3 moves10 books0 led

The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Utah State vs Washington Prediction — College Football Week 2, Sep 12, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

Utah State vs Washington Prediction — College Football Week 2, Sep 12, 2026

The pickiThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.

Why the model calls itiThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.

Matchup context: who has the advantageiWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.

Where the lines sitiWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.

Sharp read

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit

The pick

Why the model calls it

Matchup context: who has the advantage

Where the lines sit